160 FXUS62 KCHS 281458 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1058 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain the dominant feature through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a broad trough extending across the Northeast to Mid- Atlantic States will be replaced by a high amplitude ridge drifting east with an axis extending across the Deep South to the Upper Midwest regions. At the sfc, a trough is expected to develop and extend across the Foothills of the Carolinas while high pressure is draped across the western Atlantic and much of the Southeast United States. Given the pattern, expect dry and sunny conditions to prevail across the region with a light west-southwest wind eventually turning more south-southwest this afternoon as inland troughing develops and a seabreeze shifts inland. The combination of sunny to mostly sunny skies and a west-northwest downsloping flow aloft should yield high temps in the mid-upper 80s, warmest across southeast Georgia. Tonight: Clear to mostly clear skies and light/calming winds should provide favorable radiational cooling conditions. However, low temps should be a degree or two warmer than the previous night, generally ranging in the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper ridge will remain west of the area Wednesday and Thursday before weakening. A weak back door cold front is forecast to drop south into the area on Thursday before dissipating. We expect a brief period of NE winds late Thursday into Friday which will drop temps a few degrees. Moisture and forcing will be too limited to support precipitation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will prevail through early next week. Despite some model differences regarding a possible storm system early next week, we are sticking with the NBM which shows dry conditions and near-normal temps. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Broad high pressure across the western Atlantic will support a fairly weak pressure gradient across local waters, supporting winds and seas well below small craft advisory levels. In general, 5-10 kt winds from the west-southwest will veer, becoming south 10-15 kt this afternoon, highest near the coast where a seabreeze occurs. Overnight, winds will steadily decrease and return to west-southwest after midnight, remaining around 10 kt or less. Seas are expected to range around 2 ft, with the exception of a few 3 ft seas across northern South Carolina waters this evening and overnight. Quiet conditions expected Wednesday through Sunday. A period of NE winds will occur Friday through Saturday behind a back door cold front, however wind speeds should remain below advisory criteria. Seas could increase to 5 ft over the offshore GA waters on Saturday in response to increasing NE fetch and some distant swell from Hurricane Sam. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...JRL/NED MARINE...DPB/JRL