631 FXUS64 KLUB 280823 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .SHORT TERM... Closed upper low over northern New Mexico early this morning will continue northeast into eastern Colorado where it is expected to weaken into an open trough later today. Deep layer drying will ensue today on the Caprock, where southwest breezes will increase and downslope warming will allow temperatures to climb well into the 80s. Quiet and mild weather also is expected tonight on the Caprock. Off the Caprock, the surface dryline will punch to the east, though may hang up near the edge of the Caprock in the southern Rolling Plains through late afternoon before being forced further east this evening. Our forecast again will indicate a chance for thunderstorms across the Rolling Plains along and east of the dryline this afternoon and early evening before moving east of the area late evening. Instability will be improved with convective energy levels perhaps 1000 to 1500 Joules per Kilogram mainly over the southern Rolling Plains and shear levels as high as 30 knots. Storm bases still look to be moderately high, with inverted-V soundings below the fairly stout positive energy areas aloft. This should allow potential for better organized storms, and both a 1 inch hail threat and locally severe wind gust threat while higher theta-E values may bring a risk for locally heavy rainfall. Highs today in the Rolling Plains are likely to reach lower or mid 90s. Later tonight, as storms progress east a relatively mild and calmer night will follow. RMcQueen .LONG TERM... The prospect of widespread rainfall later this week continues to look possible as models come more into agreement with the upper pattern. The GFS and ECMWF are nearly identical with having an upper trough with more of a positive to slightly negative tilt while also having a slightly closed low. This would place West Texas under decent upper level diffluence as a cold front pushes southward. Moistening will occur from the top down. With the current pattern thunder should be mostly isolated as CAPE will be marginal at best with lift coming mostly from upper level diffluence. The potential for some heavy rainfall will exist as PWATs increase to near one inch for areas on the Caprock and one to one and a half inch across the the Rolling Plains. Models agree with the closed low transitioning to an open wave trough by late Friday as it pushes eastward with the trough axis overhead by sunrise Saturday. Rain chances will push to our east by Saturday afternoon as we end up on the back side of the upper trough. Temps should remain in the 70s as weak surface flow remains out of the north through the weekend. Though upper flow looks to remain mostly zonal going into next week models hint an another wave, a highly positively tiled wave, pushing southward across the central CONUS which could bring additional rainfall chances to the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy and warm downslope southwest breezes will develop this afternoon on the Caprock and may lead to locally elevated fire danger. Mixing will bring drier air to the surface as the dryline scoots off to the east into the Rolling Plains, but maybe not quite dry enough to lead to more critical RFTI and ERC levels. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/51