764 FXUS64 KLUB 241716 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the forecast period. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021/ SHORT TERM... Overall things will be quiet as upper ridging dominates the region. Winds will remain mostly out of the south to southwest around 10-15 mph. Winds may become more on the breezy side during the afternoon and early evening as a cold front approaches the northern Texas Panhandle. The front should remain outside of the FA given the lack of support to bring the front further southward. Overnight temps will be in the 50s area wide. LONG TERM... Dry and mild weather over the weekend will trend a little wetter early next week, potentially more wetter later in the week. A cutoff upper level low pressure system located off the northern coast of Baja California early Saturday will slowly approach through the weekend, nudged northeast by a deep upper low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. But upper level high pressure is expected to remain overhead Saturday and again Sunday. Monday, a sharpening trough will be about to move onshore the Pacific Northwest and will "Henry Rule" the old cutoff across southern Arizona into New Mexico by late Monday, then lifting northeast and opening while crossing the Texas Panhandle and South Plains late Monday and Tuesday. Low level moisture initially will be limited, while the weakening cutoff also will have questionable lift. But, solutions indicate some amount of lift and precipitation generation in our vicinity, at least enough to retain a slight chance for thunderstorms or showers as this trough skims across the area. Temperatures on the warm side over the weekend should taper slightly by Tuesday, but likely remaining mild. As noted by the previous shift, the western U.S. upper trough will reload after the cutoff low ejection, courtesy of that sharp Pac NW trough, and likely develop a new upper low over the southwest U.S. around next Thursday. This should keep west Texas in deep southwest flow aloft and also improving moisture in low level south or southeast flow. A slight lull in shower chances is still expected following ejection of the initial cutoff low, but rain chances appear capable of ramping up maybe fairly high by later in the week as more Pacific energy sends this next upper trough across our area as well. And there could be potential for much higher moisture levels and therefore more widespread and heavier rain amounts. Wait and see on this as details come into view over the next few days. But for now we will follow our blended guidance with moderately high rain chances next Thursday and Friday. And temperatures would also be expected to trend downward during this period due to the higher moisture levels, and perhaps a weak Pacific Cold front, although solutions appear void of frontal features at this time. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 55/99/99