635 FXUS62 KTAE 161444 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1044 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 .UPDATE... A very moist atmosphere remains in place across the region, with precipitable water exceeding 2.2 inches on the 12Z KTAE sounding. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day today, with one batch currently exiting the NE corner of the forecast area, and another batch developing and moving onshore in the Florida Panhandle. So far, the bands of rain have been rather progressive, helping to limit totals somewhat. However, will need to monitor through the afternoon for training cells, espcially in the panhandle where conditions are most saturated. && .PREV DISCUSSION [640 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The remnants of Nicholas are expected to continue to remain quasi- stationary across the northern Gulf of Mexico through near term. This is evident in the extreme moisture still present across the region with PW values near or above 2 inches. With abundant moisture still in place across the region, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are once again expected to develop across the region through the late morning to early afternoon hours. Overall, another widespread 2-3 inches is expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, with locally heavier amounts possible. Light rain showers currently across the eastern Big Bend and I-75 corridor in Georgia should push east throughout the remainder of the morning. By mid-morning, development of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the Gulf waters near the Florida Panhandle. These storms are expected to push inland throughout the morning, and eventually push north and east throughout the afternoon and early evening hours. With increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, another cooler day is in store, with highs only reaching the low 80s. Lows overnight should drop into the low 70s across much of the region. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]... Tropical moisture from the remnants of Nicholas will remain in place across the region through the short term. With the southerly flow, PW values will remain above normal near 2.1-2.3 inches. This will result high precipitation chances with PoPs around 80 percent. While the low level flow becomes somewhat more variable on Saturday, the high PW values persist with another day of continued widespread showers and some thunderstorms expected. While high temperatures will increase into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, these values will still be slightly below normal. Lows Friday night will be in the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... A weak upper level low situated over Texas and the Mississippi Valley on Sunday will move north and become absorbed in the the main upper level trough Monday night into Tuesday. This keeps most of the region under southwest flow through early in the week with PW values still 2+ inches and PoPs in the 70-80 percent range. As the trough moves off to the east, mid to upper level winds become more northerly and while PW values are still high, PoPs will decrease ever so slightly to the 50-60% range for mid-week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the lower 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Friday] MVFR to IFR CIGs are currently being observed at ECP and DHN this morning. These CIGS are expected to continue and eventually expand in coverage to ABY, VLD, and TLH over the next few hours. Light to moderate rain showers are also ongoing across the region with remnants from Nicholas continuing to move eastward through the region. Expect the reduced CIGs to continue through much of the day on Thursday before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon hours across the region, and have chances to impact all terminals in the area. .MARINE... An active pattern will lead to scattered to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the marine area into next week. Winds will be from the south for much of the time period with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. Seas are expected to be 1-3 feet initially with 1-2 feet by the weekend. .FIRE WEATHER... With tropical moisture still in place across the region due to the remnants of Nicholas, fire weather concerns will continue to remain low at this time. Given the increased moisture and low ceilings and thus mixing heights, the region can expect to see low dispersions for both Thursday and Friday as this moisture lingers over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. .HYDROLOGY... This wet pattern will continue into next week with a high chance of precipitation each day. Since Tuesday night, around 2-3 inches of rain has fallen with isolated higher amounts. An additional 2-3 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts, will be possible, particularly across the Florida Panhandle and into portions of the Big Bend. Given the wet conditions across the Florida Panhandle, the Flash Flood Watch continues for the region through tomorrow. These rainfall values will likely result in a few rivers reaching action stage but flood stage would take isolated higher amounts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 72 87 73 85 / 80 30 80 40 80 Panama City 84 73 86 73 84 / 80 50 90 60 80 Dothan 82 71 84 71 81 / 80 40 90 50 90 Albany 83 72 87 73 84 / 90 50 80 40 80 Valdosta 84 71 86 71 85 / 80 40 80 30 80 Cross City 86 73 87 74 87 / 70 30 80 40 80 Apalachicola 84 76 85 75 83 / 80 50 80 60 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf. Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Camp NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Fieux