565 FXUS62 KTAE 151414 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1014 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 .UPDATE... Forecast appears on track this morning with no changes to the current forecast. Rain bands are moving onshore along the Panhandle coast with more coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area through the rest of today. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain the primary threats with the storms, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Florida counties west of the Apalachicola River. && .PREV DISCUSSION [634 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The Remnants of Nicholas are expected to continue to slide eastward. With westerly winds aloft, a bulk of the precipitation that remains from Nicholas is expected to be across western portions of our area today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to have an early start with CAM models suggesting several bands of rain developing along coastal regions in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, which are expected to push inland throughout the afternoon and evening. With PW values near or over 2 inches, these showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing very efficient rainfall rates. Heaviest rainfall is expected to remain across coastal areas in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, with widespread totals of 3- 6 inches likely, and localized heavier totals up to 10 inches possible. Given that these regions have already had a very wet summer and continued flooding issues, a Flash Flood watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle and western portions of the Big Bend. At this time, the Storm Prediction center has no risk across our region; however, modest instability and low 0-1 KM SRH values between (50-100 M2/S2) could lead to the potential for a brief isolated waterspout or tornado. As a result of the shower and thunderstorm activity, temperatures will likely be cool today with highs only expected to climb into the low 80s today, with mid to upper 80s possible along the I-75 corridor. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]... Nicholas, or the remnants of the system, will continue to drift around the central Gulf coast on Thursday. This pattern will allow for southerly flow to continue across the region bringing high rain chances (70-90%) through the short term, although Nicholas becomes less discernible by Friday. The main concern in the short term will be heavy rain and flooding, particularly across the already saturated Florida Panhandle. With these concerns for flash flooding, a flood watch has been issued for the Panhandle that spans both the near and short term. This wet pattern will help to limit daytime highs to forecast highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday and a touch warmer on Friday with the mid 80s. Lows Thursday night are expected to be in the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to put the region under southerly flow with well above normal rain chances continuing through Saturday. As ridging begins to expand across the southeast on Sunday, PoPs are cut back slightly, though above normal, with 50-60% through Tuesday. High temperatures increase a few degrees during the long term with values in the mid to upper 80s while low temperatures generally remain the lower 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Thursday] MVFR CIGS are expected to develop at DHN and ECP terminals this morning. Conditions may continue to deteriorate throughout the afternoon to near IFR conditions as lower Vsbys also develop across the region. These lower CIGS are expected to remain at DHN and ECP throughout the entire TAF period; however, they will likely expand to ABY, VLD, and TLH by the evening and early part of the overnight hours. Rain associated with the remnants of Nicholas is expected to continue to move over the area, with ECP, DHN and TLH seeing rainfall starting in the early morning. These conditions are expected to push eastward to impact ABY and VLD by the early afternoon hours. .MARINE... Tropical Depression Nicholas remains well west of the region near Louisiana this morning and will meander around the central Gulf coast for the next few days. Southerly flow on the west east of the system will allow for an active pattern and high rain chances through the weekend. Seas will generally remain around 1-3 feet through the first half of the weekend with around 1 foot for Sunday into next week. .FIRE WEATHER... Tropical moisture will be in place today and through the next several days as the remnants of Nicholas move east into the region. This will keep RH values high across the region. Dispersion values are expected to be low across interior portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. .HYDROLOGY... As Tropical Depression Nicholas meanders around the central Gulf coast, southerly flow will bring high rain chances and the potential for heavy rainfall through at least the end of the week. Three to six inches of rain is possible across the Florida Panhandle through Friday with isolated areas up to 10 inches. This may lead to flash flooding across the region, particularly because of wet soils already in place. Based on this, a flash flood watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle. While the lower rainfall amounts may lead to a few rivers in action stage, the higher rainfall amounts could lead to a few rivers reaching flood stage. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 72 84 73 86 / 70 40 80 50 80 Panama City 82 72 84 73 84 / 80 60 90 60 80 Dothan 80 70 80 70 83 / 70 60 80 40 80 Albany 82 71 83 72 84 / 70 50 70 40 80 Valdosta 85 71 85 72 86 / 70 40 70 30 80 Cross City 87 73 86 73 87 / 50 30 70 40 80 Apalachicola 82 74 83 75 84 / 70 60 90 60 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Humphreys/Young NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Fieux