414 FXUS64 KSJT 142347 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 647 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Mostly clear, warm and dry the next 24 hours with weak northwest flow aloft and weak ridging at the surface. East to northeast winds will be less than 10 mph into Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Hot and dry will continue to be the story for the end of the week and through the weekend, thanks to the upper-level ridge building in across the southern Plains. High temperatures will steadily return to the mid to upper 90s as an 850mb thermal ridge also builds across west Texas over the next few days. Southeast flow at the surface will also help to bring in some Gulf moisture, allowing for humidity to increase. The GFS hinted at a few showers on Thursday and Friday, but given the subsidence expected from the upper ridge, all we're likely to see is a decent cumulus field each afternoon. Early next week, long-range models show a deep upper-level trough dropping down into the central US. A surface cold front would come with it, generating rain chances and cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. For now, temperatures during this time were trended a little lower with a few rain chances. Over the next few days, this system will be monitored for potential impacts and run-to- run consistency in the models. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 The latest model trends indicate an increased possibility of low cloud development over roughly the eastern third of our area early Wednesday morning. Included a Tempo group with MVFR ceilings at KBBD and KJCT, mainly in the 12Z-15Z time frame. Low clouds should break up around mid-morning Wednesday, and should have at least a scattered VFR-based diurnal cumulus field in the afternoon. Wind direction will be generally from the east (varying from east- northeast to east-southeast). Wind speeds will decrease later this evening and will be less than 5 knots in most areas overnight. During the day Wednesday, wind speeds will be 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 90 66 91 / 0 5 0 5 San Angelo 64 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 5 Junction 64 91 65 93 / 0 0 5 5 Brownwood 65 90 66 91 / 0 0 5 5 Sweetwater 65 90 66 91 / 0 5 0 5 Ozona 65 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...19