222 
FXUS65 KFGZ 140919
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
219 AM MST Tue Sep 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry conditions to continue. Warm 
daytime temperatures through mid-week will cool a few degrees by 
the weekend. Generally light west through southwest breezes are 
expected each afternoon through Thursday with some strengthening 
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The center of high pressure aloft was located over 
the southern border of Arizona this morning. The same pattern will
remain in place through Wednesday with little change in the 
apparent weather. Warm daytime temperatures will continue, 
downright hot at lower elevations, with west to southwest 
afternoon winds at 5 to 15 mph each day. A dry air mass will 
remain in place resulting in chilly overnight low temperatures, 
dipping into the 30s in a few of our higher elevation valleys.

From Thursday onward...A trough will present itself across the 
western states. Two certain impacts of the western trough will be
a gradual cooling off of daytime temperatures and strengthening 
of southwesterly afternoon breezes. However, subtle differences 
exist within the model ensemble forecasts from Friday onward.  
The stronger trough solutions try to pull moisture and a slight 
chance of thunderstorms across Arizona from Friday into early 
Saturday with rapid drying after that point. The stronger 
solutions would deliver locally windy conditions over the weekend 
with the potential for freezing low temperatures by early next 
week as a very dry air mass moves in. The weaker trough solutions 
deliver the moisture increase and slight chance of storms from 
Saturday into Sunday with a lighter but breezy wind regime. With 
the weaker system just enough moisture would remain to hold off 
widespread higher elevation freezing. Something to keep an eye on 
as the weekend approaches. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24 
hour TAF forecast period. Surface winds will be generally west to 
southwest at 5-15 kts between 16Z and 03Z, and otherwise light and 
variable. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm and dry conditions Tuesday and 
Wednesday, with locally breezy southwest winds each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and warm weather will persist with 
breezy southwesterly winds each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff