297 
FXUS64 KMEG 131952
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
252 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Surface high pressure is situated over the SE US while
broad upper level high pressure extends across the region.
Moisture has been on the increase with surface dewpoints climbing
into the lower 70s and the CU field pushing well north today. 
Isolated showers are popping up across east-central AR and north 
MS with temps in the 80s to around 90. 

The main story continues to be TS Nicholas which will make
landfall along the TX coast tonight and then track NE into the
Lower MS Valley over the next few days. The exact track of this 
system, which is still uncertain, will dictate weather across the
Mid-South this week. Models are still trying to sort out the 
interaction, or lack thereof, between Nicholas and the upper 
trough pushing through the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This trough will
push a weak front south toward the northern parts of the Mid-
South toward the middle of the week. 

Any showers/thunderstorms this afternoon will quickly dissipate 
with loss of heating this evening. Some showers assoicated with 
the outer circulation of Nicholas could push into north MS by 
sunrise otrw fairly quiet overnight and mild with lows in the 
upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect more shower and thunderstorm 
development across the region Tuesday afternoon on the outer 
periphery of Nicholas. Clouds and increased rain chances will keep
temps cooler across north MS. By Wednesday a front will move to 
just north of the region with the remnants of Nicholas somewhere 
to the southwest. As a result, expect decent chances for showers 
and thunderstorms. 12z model runs seem to be trending toward most 
of the heavier precip remaining south of the area perhaps skirting
parts of north MS with an inch or two of rain so will monitor this
trend. 

Latest guidance suggest what remains of Nicholas will track east 
into AL by the end of the week and then slowly dissipate over the
SE US though uncertainty is high. Expect weak upper troughing 
over the region with high amounts of moisture transitioning to 
broad weak upper ridging. Chances for showers/thunderstorms will 
continue though should become increasingly diurnal in nature. 
Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the upper 60s with humid 
conditions prevailing.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Latest satellite depicts a nice Cu-field across the Mississippi
Valley Region along with some high cirrus associated with TS
Nicholas (across portions of MS). Cigs will primarily be VFR this
afternoon. Patchy fog will possible again late tonight at MKL and
perhaps TUP. VCSH possible at TUP and perhaps MEM this afternoon.
Southerly winds 7-11 kts with a few occasional gusts to 18 kts at
JBR this afternoon. Better chance for afternoon showers/storms on 
Tuesday at all sites.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$