194 
FXUS64 KMEG 131751
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1129 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure is situated over the SE US with broad upper
ridging across the region. The humidity is back, with dewpoints 
in the lower 70s, as southerly winds transport gulf moisture 
northward. Increasing instability could result in a few showers or
perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon but coverage should be 
minimal and limited to east-central AR and north MS. Afternoon 
highs will be in the 80s with isolated locations hitting 90F. 
Ongoing forecast looks good. 

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ 

All eyes are on the tropics this morning. The track of tropical 
storm Nicholas will be the main factor in the weather across the 
Midsouth for the upcoming work week. Synoptically, zonal flow 
early this week will transition to weak northwest flow after 
midweek, with another ridge building in over the weekend. 

Tropical storm Nicholas is forecast to move onshore in Texas this
afternoon, then slowly move into north Louisiana midweek, and
eventually into central Mississippi after midweek. If this
forecast is correct, we shouldn't see any significant impact in
the Midsouth, but clouds and some rain should keep temperatures in
check. portions of north Mississippi may see around an inch of 
rainfall. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s during the work 
week. Morning lows should be in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Next weekend looks drier and possibly a bit warmer as a ridge
redevelops across the Southeastern US 

30

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Latest satellite depicts a nice Cu-field across the Mississippi
Valley Region along with some high cirrus associated with TS
Nicholas (across portions of MS). Cigs will primarily be VFR this
afternoon. Patchy fog will possible again late tonight at MKL and
perhaps TUP. VCSH possible at TUP and perhaps MEM this afternoon.
Southerly winds 7-11 kts with a few occasional gusts to 18 kts at
JBR this afternoon. Better chance for afternoon showers/storms on 
Tuesday at all sites.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$