638 FXUS65 KPUB 131747 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...REMINDER: KPUX weather radar is scheduled to go down this morning for two weeks for pedestal refurbishment. See www.weather.gov/pub/RadarUpgrade ... Currently... Skies were clear across the region at 3 am this morning. Ambient temps were in the 60s across the plains with 40s and 50s in the valleys. Dewpts across most of the plains have come up into the 40s and 50s, although some 30s were still noted over the Raton Mesa. In the interior valleys and mtns dwpts were still in the 20s and 30s. On the regional scale, showers were still noted over EC CO and were moving into KS. Another in a series of shortwaves were noted over N NV and it was moving east. Today... Another hot day is in store for the region as a lee trough is fcst to develop in advance of the approaching speed max. Downslope flow will allow temps to climb well into the 90s across nearly all of the plains. Showers will be few and far between and will be located mainly over El Paso county later this afternoon. Over the valleys it will once again be warm with 80s. Record high temps will be possible in KALS as the record value in 87 and the fcst'd high will be 86. Record highs are not anticipated in KCOS or KPUB. By early to mid afternoon, a cool front is fcst to push southward across the Palmer divide while a lee trough will extend across the far Southeast plains. Stagnant/weak westerly flow will develop over the remainder of the plains. The frontal system will likely initiate a few thunderstorms over El Paso county by mid to late afternoon. The storms are not expected to be severe, with gusty winds and small hail the primary concerns. Except for an isolated -tsra over the central mtns, the rest of the mtns and valleys will remain hot and dry. Tonight... A cool front will push southward over the rest of the plains this evening. This may allow for isolated storms to develop farther south along the I-25 corridor, however most of the plains will remain dry. Thunderstorms will still be possible over EL Paso county through the evening hours. A strong storm cant be ruled out over far N El Paso county. Min temps by morning should be in the 50s across the plains with 40s over the mtns/valleys. Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...Severe weather potential Tuesday... Long term concerns include the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, along with the potential for severe storms across southeastern Colorado. Warmer and drier weather with occasional breezy periods developing through the rest of the week will lead to increasing fire danger. Tuesday-Tuesday night...Moderate west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the region as an upper trough continues to translate across the Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, models remain in agreement of a cold front pushing through the southeast plains late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, with easterly upslope flow developing across the plains keeping low level moisture in place across the plains, with MUCapes of 1000-2000 j/kg and bulk shears of 30-45 kts progged through the afternoon and evening. However, with cool upslope flow in place, sounding data indicates much of southeast Colorado too stable/capped through the afternoon, with best potential for convection through the late morning and afternoon being over and near the higher terrain, especially along the lower slopes of the eastern mountains, where upslope and uvv from the broad upper trough will be maximized. Storms may continue out across the I-25 Corridor through the far southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening hours. With the strong vertical shear profiles, there will be the potential for strong to severe storms, producing large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches, along with damaging outflow wind gusts, as well as locally heavy rain, leading to possible flash flooding across the area burn scars, especially the Spring scar. Tuesday continues to look like the coolest day of the week, with highs in the 70s to mid 80s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Wednesday-Sunday...Warmer and drier weather returns to the area as a moderate northwest flow aloft across the region Wednesday becomes more westerly through the end of the work week and into next weekend. Models do indicate a few minor embedded waves moving through the stronger zonal flow setting up across the Northern Tier of States later in the week, leading to increasing flow aloft across the Rockies. This will all lead to mainly dry weather and the return of well above normal temperatures into next weekend, along with occasional breezy periods leading to increasing fire danger areawide, especially Friday and Saturday. While models differ on its magnitude, there will be the potential for a significant cool down across eastern Colorado as another upper trough moves across the region (late next Monday/Tuesday) just outside of this extended forecast period. Time will tell. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 KALS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will be possible this afternoon up to around 25 mph. This evening winds will lighten and become diurnally driven. KCOS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. After 22Z this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms may form in the vicinity of the terminal. The chances of a storm directly impacting the terminal are still low, and storms are not expected to be strong. However, should a stronger storm form and pass nearby, gusty outflow winds will be possible. KPUB: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will turn easterly then northeasterly later this afternoon as a weak boundary moves through. Winds tonight will be light and diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO