456 FXUS62 KCAE 131737 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 137 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will continue support dry and fair weather through Wednesday morning. A gradual warming trend is expected through the week with temperatures returning above normal and higher humidity. Chances of rain will increase late in the week when atmospheric moisture increases across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains in place with a broad area of upper ridging continuing to support fair weather. While clouds are limited at this point, with some afternoon cumulus developing, the sky over much of the area appears hazy due to some wildfire smoke transported aloft from the western CONUS. While it is a bit difficult to discern on satellite, webcams in the Augusta area do show this smoke appearing to thin out which should continue for the Midlands later this afternoon. While temperatures were running a bit below the forecast earlier at least somewhat due to the smoke, expect them to rebound to near 90 this afternoon for much of the area. Tonight, expect a gradual increase in low level moisture with weak onshore flow. This will prevent lows from getting quite as cool as they have the past couple nights, even with fairly favorable radiational cooling conditions. With this increase in low level moisture, expect some patchy fog to develop, especially south of I-20. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure, combined with limited moisture will continue to keep Tuesday through Wednesday morning dry. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures Tuesday climb above normal, with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tuesday night will see lows in the upper 60s. By Wednesday, some low-level Atlantic moisture, along with mid- level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, will finally be returning to the region. Pwat values increase through the day to between 1.5 to 2 inches. This should be enough, combined with afternoon heating and possible sea-breeze front, to initiate isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms for both Wednesday and Thursday. With the increase in moisture and cloudiness, afternoon temperatures should drop closer to normal for this time of the year. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper pattern through the Saturday seems to support weak troughiness west of the forecast area, with upper ridge still off in the western Atlantic. By Sunday, the upper ridge may build further westward towards the Southeastern U.S. into early next week. This will keep temperatures near normal, and continued diurnal convection each day. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions through today, VSBY restrictions develop late tonight. Expect scattered cumulus across the area today, diminishing after sunset this evening. Some high clouds will pass over the terminals but the main impact late tonight into tomorrow morning will be fog developing, mainly south of I-20. Expect MVFR VSBYs at CAE/CUB early tomorrow morning with IFR VSBYs at OGB/AGS. Went with a combination of persistence and hires guidance for OGB/AGS as both had restrictions develop earlier this past morning and do expect low level moisture to be higher. Left restrictions out at DNL for now but there is a possibility that MVFR restrictions briefly impact DNL as well early tomorrow morning. Winds through the period will be mostly light with a generally southerly direction. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for restrictions will return mid week as moisture increases over the Southeast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$