376 
FXUS64 KBRO 131729 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Periods of rain will continue across the region this
afternoon as Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move northward.
MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the afternoon and 
early evening with periods of VFR across all aerodromes. VFR 
conditions return this evening across all aerodromes but brief 
periods of MVFR are still possible through tonight. Northwesterly 
winds will continue through the period with gusts to around 20 
kts is expected through this afternoon before winds decrease 
overnight. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Unsettled conditions will occur today due to the
presence of Tropical Storm Nicholas. As the system moves farther
away later today, much improved conditions will occur beginning
around sunset this evening. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): This portion of the forecast
will be dominated by the presence of Tropical Storm Nicholas. To
that extent, please refer to the latest Hurricane Local Statement
for more detailed information. 

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast daily and nightly through
the period. This will be the result of deep tropical moisture
leftover in the wake of Nicholas interacting with daytime heating
and broad 500 mb low pressure over the Lone Star State. The 
sustained chance of rain and associated significant cloud cover
will keep temperatures at near normal levels for this time of
year. 

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): This portion of the forecast will
be dominated by the presence of Tropical Storm Nicholas. To that 
extent, please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast and
Marine Weather Message for more detailed information. 

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Vastly improved marine conditions
will occur during this period as Nicholas fades from existence 
and a weak pressure gradient prevails over the western Gulf of 
Mexico. However, slightly more adverse winds and seas cannot be 
ruled out for Saturday night through Sunday as the gradient begins
to intensify. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  91  77 /  90  50  40  30 
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  92  78 /  80  50  40  30 
HARLINGEN            84  73  92  75 /  90  50  30  20 
MCALLEN              85  74  93  76 /  80  30  30  20 
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  73  96  76 /  80  30  20  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  87  81 /  90  60  40  30 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ256-257-351. 

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ256-257-351.

     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ251-254>257-351.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ256-257-351.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ256-257-351.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. 

&&

$$

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68-McGinnis/Aviation