612 FXUS63 KABR 131558 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1058 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Tracking showers and scattered thunderstorms this morning as they progress from west to east across central SD into northeast SD. This activity will continue pushing eastward through the rest of the morning into the afternoon and early evening hours as low pressure and associated frontal boundaries move across the state. Some storms will remain capable of being strong to severe. This threat looks to shift out of central SD this morning into portions of east-central and southeast SD later this afternoon where the better instability and deep layer shear will reside. Hail will be the primary threat with the addition of strong winds associated with the afternoon activity. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast to account for radar and pcpn trends, otherwise it remains on track through the remainder of today. UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warm air advection has developed this morning ahead of a low pressure system, broad upper level trough. Surface dew points are slowly increasing west of the Missouri River with readings in the low to mid 50s. A low level jet over the western Dakotas should help maintain the ongoing convection over Wyoming. Increasing instability along and west of the Missouri River, along with good deep layer shear could support a few strong to severe elevated storms through the mid morning hours. Instability quickly wanes before noon, with general showers and thunderstorms expected. Also, as the convection moves eastward, it will encounter a more stable environment, with mostly showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms expected. There is still the potential of additional convection over south central South Dakota later this afternoon as instability tries to return with some clearing. Later shifts may need to monitor the clearing line this afternoon for this additional severe threat area. An area of high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into the CWA later tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday. This may help set the stage for low clouds, or fog over a good portion of the CWA, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The HREF does support a good area of low cloud cover. A short wave will track southeast across southwestern South Dakota late tonight and into the morning hours on Tuesday. This system could bring showers to the far southwestern CWA, or Jone County. Will keep the time period dry for now. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 The region will be under the influence of surface high pressure at the beginning of the extended period. The high begins to get pushed east late Tuesday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The trough appears to stall out over the western Dakotas on Wednesday, with a decent pressure gradient developing, which may result in Wednesday being a somewhat windy day. The trough finally begins to slide east Wednesday night, with the associated frontal boundary tracking from west to east across the CWA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front looks to move through dry for the most part, but may interact with a bit more moisture across the far eastern CWA, so could be a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday night into the day Friday. Some of the models are hinting at another frontal boundary sometime over the weekend, but most of the models bring this through dry, so will follow suit with the forecast for now. The majority of the extended period will feature high temperatures in the 70s and 80s. The exception will be Friday, with cooler highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 40s to the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG An area of showers and thunderstorms will track from west to east across the area today, exiting the region during the evening hours. Periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms. Expect VFR cigs across the central part of South Dakota overnight, but will see IFR/MVFR cigs settle in over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Parkin