971 
FXUS62 KCAE 131431
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1031 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and drier air will continue support dry and fair
weather into early next week. A gradual warming trend is
expected through the week with temperatures returning above
normal and higher humidity. Chances of rain will increase late
in the week when atmospheric moisture increases across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail
over the forecast area today. Atmospheric moisture remains low
with PWATs around 1 inch and expected to remain low through the
day. The combination of upper level ridging and low PWATs and a
strong subsidence inversion noted on forecast soundings will
result in continued fair weather. 

Some high clouds may pass over the CSRA later this afternoon and
evening but otherwise expect mostly clear skies. The sky will
continue to appear hazy for most of the day, associated with
some high level residual smoke transported into the region from
the western US. This will likely have a minimal effect on
temperatures today, however, with highs mostly in the low 90s.

Tonight, the atmosphere will continue to modify and low level
moisture will increase a bit which may support some early
morning stratus and fog, mainly favoring the eastern Midlands.
Dewpoints will be a bit higher as well and this will limit
radiational cooling and also support the fog/stratus potential.
Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than tonight with
temperatures in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft will provide the Midlands and CSRA will one
last totally dry day on Tuesday. Low level moisture will 
continue to increase with an onshore flow as precipitable water 
levels rise to 1.5 inches south to 1 inch north. There will also
be a good chance of patchy fog Tuesday morning in the eastern 
Midlands. 

Precipitable water values increase to 1.5 to 2 inches on 
Wednesday due to a combination of stronger onshore flow and the 
potential advection of tropical moisture from the remnants of 
TS Nicholas. The operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF differ 
on how much Nicholas moisture advects into the region. Expect 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the 
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid summer pattern sets up late this week through next 
weekend with a Bermuda High and a low level onshore flow. This 
should lead to diurnal scattered convection and above normal 
temperatures. Some residual tropical moisture from the remnants 
of TS Nicholas could enhance convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect generally VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast
period, except some patchy morning fog.

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate over the
area keeping any precipitation out of the forecast. Some low
level moisture increase is expected by this evening and this may
support some increased chances of overnight stratus/fog but
mainly just before sunrise. 

Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail with calm winds. Winds 
will pick up from the south late this morning but should remain
light at 5 knots or less. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for restrictions will 
return mid week as moisture increases over the Southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$