109 FXUS66 KOTX 131134 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 434 AM PDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A quiet start to the week is expected. On Wednesday, another weather system may bring slight precipitation chances in the mountains along with breezy winds. Temperatures will cool to below average highs in the 60s and low 70s by the end of the week. Another round of active weather is possible next weekend with precipitation and breezy winds expected. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A shallow ridge off the coast will keep the region fairly benign. The stable airmass is supporting early morning fog development in the northern valleys. The clouds and fog in the morning are expected to slowly dissipate by late morning. The rest of the day should be mostly sunny with light winds. Highs expected to peak in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. Pockets of frost are possible in the higher terrain of the northern mountains but should be very sparse and generally above 4000ft. Tuesday: The ridge begins to breakdown as another trough begins to press into the Pacific Northwest. The region can expect increasing clouds through the day. Precip chances increase along the Cascades as the system approaches by the afternoon. Highs will be in the 70 to low 80s. /JDC Tuesday evening through Wednesday: Our next system will bring light showers to the Cascades Tuesday night, with waning chances along the Canadian border Wednesday morning. Later in the morning into the afternoon, models indicate an uptick in shower activity in the Idaho Panhandle. Thunderstorms are unlikely, though the outlier GFS does suggest possible thunder in the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. In the latter part of the afternoon, westerly winds will be at their max with gusts around 20 mph, and shower activity will quickly subside. Note that the GFS is also an outlier with the winds, giving several locations gusts in the 30s. Wednesday night through Sunday: Then Wednesday night through Thursday, most of the model solutions give us a shortwave ridge and dry weather for our entire forecast area. Keep an eye out Thursday morning for below freezing temperatures in some spots. Friday through the weekend brings more winds and precipitation chances. Confidence has increased for rain during the Friday into Saturday morning period in particular; as such, our forecast PoPs and precipitation amounts have increased. A warm front will bring widespread, light to moderate rain to our area to end the workweek. This rain will be more of a continuous precipitation rather than having the hit or miss nature of showers. Friday afternoon will also feature breezy southerly winds. The rest of the weekend, the forecast details get muddier (figuratively and literally), but there are additional, decent rain chances and more breezy winds possible. Regarding overall temperature trends, temps will continually drop throughout the period down to highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday. RC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Early morning patchy fog in the northern valleys is expected to dissipate through the late morning. TAF sites are expected to have VFR conditions through the period as high pressure keeps dry air over the region. Increasing high clouds expected toward the end of the period as another system begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. /JDC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 72 46 74 53 71 35 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 71 48 73 55 71 35 / 10 0 0 10 0 0 Pullman 69 42 73 49 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 77 51 81 56 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 75 41 74 54 70 35 / 10 0 0 10 10 0 Sandpoint 69 43 71 51 68 34 / 20 0 0 10 10 10 Kellogg 69 48 72 47 67 40 / 10 0 0 10 10 0 Moses Lake 76 45 77 53 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 76 52 79 60 71 47 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Omak 77 50 76 56 74 39 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$