415 FXUS61 KGYX 131119 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 719 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves east of the region this morning allowing high pressure to build in today and Tuesday. The next frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will then bring a return to tranquil weather on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will bring scattered showers to the region Friday and Saturday. Canadian high pressure will bring a return to fair weather conditions on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 715AM UPDATE... The area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is moving offshore into the Gulf of Maine. We will see clearing over the next few hours. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... As of 3AM this morning, areas of showers and occasional embedded thunder stretched primarily along the NH/MA border near the frontal zone. Further west, a more organized area of convection associated with the subtle surface low has been weakening as it tracks across NY state, heading generally for MA. Expect continued shower and embedded thunder chances primarily in southern NH over the next few hours, but this should be moving into the Atlantic near or shortly after sunrise. High pressure builds in today bringing drier conditions with temperatures in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure centered to the north will have its influence felt across New England tonight, with calm conditions and a mostly clear sky expected. This should allow for good cooling conditions especially in valley locations where cold air drainage may send temperatures down to near 40 degrees. This air mass is not quite as dry as some we have seen in recent weeks, but will still be capable of producing a chilly early fall night. With the high crossing the area on Tuesday we will again see a nice weather day with temperatures reaching the 60s to low 70s. Rain from the next frontal system should hold off until Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong warm air advection Tuesday night along with an increase in deep moisture as ensemble mean PWs increase to around 1.5 inches. Scattered showers will develop and CAPE values will be on the increase during the night over southern New Hampshire where there may be some scattered thunderstorms as well. Behind this warm front, warm and muggy conditions will arrive for Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s across much of the region with surface dew points climbing to around 70 degrees. This will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon over northern with the precipitation sliding southwards late in the day and into the evening hours. The thunderstorms may become strong to severe in an areas of steep mid level lapse rates and an increasing low level jet. Although some drier air will enter the region from high pressure building towards our region from the Great Lakes, moisture may begin to surge back northward along the East Coast during the day. This may bring scattered showers back to the region through Saturday as low pressure gradually moves polewards from the Mid Atlantic region. There is considerable uncertainty within the models with this latter feature and confidence levels in the forecasts for late in the week and into the weekend are not high at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected along the NH/MA border through 10 or 12Z this morning. After this, though, we should see clearing skies today with light northwest breezes. Clear conditions tonight may lead to fog formation in the valleys, otherwise it will be VFR again through Tuesday. Long Term...Scattered SHRA will move into the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, resulting in some MVFR conditions. A cold front will then cross late on Wednesday with TSRA possible, which could result in MVFR/IFR conditions. High pressure will bring a return to VFR conditions on Thursday and most of Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Light winds expected over the waters as weak low pressure tracks east along a remnant frontal boundary and high pressure builds by to the north. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday but remains light. Long Term...SCA conditions possible on Wednesday along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly winds during the morning will turn more westerly late in the day with gusts up to 25 kts possible with seas of 3-6 feet through Wednesday night. High pressure will build over the area on Thursday bringing a return to lighter winds and seas. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Cannon