308 FXUS64 KCRP 131049 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 549 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .AVIATION... With Tropical Storm Nicholas moving north towards South Texas, expect winds to increase and rainfall to become heavier-- especially across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Nicholas will move along the coast through the day today bringing winds of 50 to 65 mph for those near the coast, with 30 to 40 mph winds possible further inland. Winds will shift from easterly to northerly through the forecast period. Heavy rain and thick cloud cover will result in MVFR ceilings, with periods of IFR ceilings and visibility during heavier showers and storms. We, once again, urge aviators to use caution. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 438 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... TS Nicholas remains the primary headline for the short-term period. Strengthening of TS Nicholas occurred overnight and the center of the storm re-formed about 150 n mi to the north-northwest of what was previously being tracked. This was confirmed by aircraft reconnaissance and the Brownsville radar. With this strengthening trend and the significant shift north, tropical storm force winds are likely to arrive this morning with gusts to hurricane force possible. Additional strengthening of TS Nicholas is expected today as it moves along the Lower and Middle Texas Coastline. The system will continue a northward progression before making landfall later this afternoon or evening across the Middle/Upper Texas Coast. As far as hazards are concerned... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today through Tuesday AM. The highest rainfall amounts are expected to be along the Coastal Bend and in the Victoria Crossroads. These areas could see rainfall totals around 4" to 6" with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals drop off to 1-2" for the Coastal Plains area with less than 1" of rain expected for locations in and west of Brush Country. With the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall, flash flooding may occur across the Coastal bend and Victoria Crossroads through Tuesday AM As TS Nicholas nears the coastline, storm surge inundation of 2-4 feet will be possible. Coastal flooding is expected through Tuesday AM. There is a HIGH risk of rip currents today and Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, coastal counties are expected to begin experiencing tropical storm force winds this AM with hurricane force gusts possible. An isolated tornado or two will be possible today as Nicholas approaches, especially across the immediate coastal locations north of Port Aransas. Although not expected, Nicholas could potentially strengthen to a hurricane as it nears the coast. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for locations north of Port Aransas LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... As Nicholas moves away from the area, rain and thunderstorms will decrease to isolated in coverage but will continue through the weekend due to abundant moisture. the overall pattern will feature high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and another one over the Desert SW. Expect afternoon temperatures to slowly creep up but should range in the 90s and heat indices will once again hover around 105. MARINE... A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for areas north of Port Aransas and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire Middle Texas coastal waters. A reconnaissance aircraft found the center of TS Nicholas to be roughly 150 nautical miles north of what was previously tracked. Nicholas is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves north-northwest today. Conditions will deteriorate this morning as the storm approaches. Tropical storm force winds are likely to develop this AM with hurricane force gusts possible. Seas could reach to just above 20 feet as TS Nicholas moves through the Coastal Waters. Expect conditions to begin to improve later Tuesday. HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall is expected between now and Tuesday. With 4 to 6 inches of accumulation possible, mainly for coastal counties. Expect high rainfall rates as moisture will be very deep. These high rainfall rates will lead to periods of flash flooding. The prolonged nature of the rain, including the potential for more moderate rain through mid and late week will increase the potential for river flooding...again with the biggest concern being in coastal areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 74 89 75 91 / 90 60 50 40 50 Victoria 83 73 85 73 89 / 90 70 60 40 60 Laredo 88 73 94 76 97 / 60 40 20 10 30 Alice 85 72 90 73 93 / 80 60 40 30 50 Rockport 86 76 89 78 90 / 90 70 50 40 60 Cotulla 88 73 92 75 96 / 60 40 30 20 30 Kingsville 83 73 90 74 92 / 90 60 40 30 50 Navy Corpus 85 77 88 79 90 / 90 70 50 40 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Refugio...Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio. Tropical Storm Warning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Goliad...Inland Calhoun... Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Live Oak... Nueces Islands...Victoria. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Storm Surge Watch For the following zones: Coastal Kleberg... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Storm Surge Warning For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Tropical Storm Warning For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ LS/77...AVIATION