658 FXUS65 KSLC 131008 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 408 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will stall across central Utah today, allowing a slightly cooler air mass to spread across the north. Meanwhile the south will remain warm and dry. A general westerly flow will follow through mid-week, maintaining warm and dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...Cyclonic flow prevails across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region early this morning. A weak shortwave trough embedded within this flow is brushing by northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with the associated surface front having pushed into the far southern Wasatch Front. RAP analysis shows the associated upper jet extending across northeast NV and northwest UT, with a region of lift persisting along the nose of this feature over northern Utah. As such isolated showers and thunderstorms persist early this morning, and will likely hold on for another hour or two before this region of ascent moves east by sunrise. Have included slight chance PoPs east of the Wasatch Range and north of I-80 early this morning, and will monitor radar/satellite trends for necessary adjustments should this stubborn convection persist. The surface front will stall across central Utah today, leaving a slightly cooler and more stable air mass across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Meanwhile warm and dry conditions will persist south of this boundary, with locally breezy conditions across southwest Utah this afternoon. Hi-res models indicate convection will develop again this afternoon over the high Uintas, otherwise conditions should remain dry over the remainder of the area this afternoon. Height rises under a general westerly flow will result in dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures running 5 degrees or so above climo. .LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...Weak high pressure will allow for pleasant weather conditions the latter half of the week. Temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s (with 90s in the St. George vicinity) are forecast with little overall change through Saturday. Dry conditions are forecast. A pattern change is noted by Sunday and especially by Monday. This is resulting from a broad upper trough digging down from the north and has been a consistent trend in models thus far. About a 20 degree high temperature spread exists in ensembles early next week at SLC, indicating uncertainty in the forecast at this point. By Monday, there is only a 25% chance of Salt Lake City reaching 80 degrees or higher; a change in the weather pattern indeed. .AVIATION...KSLC...High based clouds or clear conditions are forecast throughout the forecast period. VFR conditions will persist. Light winds are expected at less than 12 knots during the day and night. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Clear skies or high based clouds are forecast today with dry conditions forecast. VFR conditions are anticipated with diurnal fluctuations to winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...A weak cold front will stall across central Utah today. To the north of this boundary slightly cooler and more stable air will spread across northern Utah. Areas south of the front will see warm, dry and breezy conditions, with local critical fire weather conditions possible where fuels are sufficiently dry. A general westerly flow will follow Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in warm and dry conditions across the area. The flow will become southwesterly during the latter portion of the week, maintaining warm and dry conditions, but also bringing the potential for gusty afternoon winds across southern Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Seaman/NDeSmet For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php