272 FXUS64 KOUN 130850 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 350 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, UPPER AIR... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 HRRR vertically integrated smoke output continues to support a thinning out of elevated smoke today as westerly mid-upper level flow increases. Temperatures today expected to be similar to yesterday, perhaps a few degrees cooler across northern and western Oklahoma. Still expect some delay in moisture return across the northwest half of Oklahoma, so RH values will drop fairly low this afternoon, close to or less than 20 percent. Winds not expected to be all that strong, but the hot and dry environment could yield elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northwest Oklahoma, mainly near and west of Alva, to Camargo and Cheyenne. On periphery of TS Nicholas, deeper moisture return close to southeast Oklahoma may yield some brief showers or isolated storms late this afternoon over far southeast Oklahoma. A mild and more humid night is expected tonight with most lows in the upper 60s as higher dewpoints spread northward. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Although models still differ in the fine details of cold front locations and impact late Tuesday through Wednesday, there is a consensus that impacts will be mainly felt across northern Oklahoma Tuesday night in the form of rain and thunderstorms. Some of this activity will likely try to progress southward into central portions of Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Higher pops were maintained across the northern portions of Oklahoma associated with mentioned frontal boundary, which will likely stall near or over northern Oklahoma on Wednesday. Evolution of Nicholas will have impacts on if precipitation will linger near this feature or not through Wednesday and even into Thursday. The NAM is still the outlier with the tropical system and especially in the potential for a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) environment across northern into central Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday. This isn't quite as apparent on the 06Z run, but the NAM scenario still much slower and farther west with remnant of Nicholas, potentially yielding heavy rain potential over our forecast area. With this being such an outlier with official NHC forecast, current forecast will be more in line with NBM which appears to be a good blend of GFS/ECM. Later in the week into next weekend, broad mid-level ridging progd ahead of upper level trough that will approach the northwest U.S. and northern Rockies. With lower level thermal ridge spreading off of higher terrain ahead of trough, we went warmer than the NBM Friday through the weekend with some near 100 degree readings not out of the question across far northwest Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 VFR conditions are expected. South winds will generally remain near or above 12 knots through the daytime Monday. && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 An Upper Air flight is planned for 12Z this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 92 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 94 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 93 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 94 66 92 62 / 0 0 10 50 Ponca City OK 94 67 92 66 / 0 0 10 60 Durant OK 89 69 88 69 / 10 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...09