988 FXUS65 KPUB 130513 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1113 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Updated the precipitation forecast based on the latest radar data. Scattered thunderstorms continue over the far Eastern Plains this evening, slowly tracking east-northeast. The strongest storms are currently located over Prowers County and will lift into Kiowa County through 11 PM. Storms should clear into western Kansas by 11 PM. This stronger storm may be capable of producing hail to one inch in diameter and wind gusts over 60 mph, along with heavy rainfall. Mozley UPDATE Issued at 551 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Updated the precipitation chances for this evening based on the latest radar trends across southern Colorado. A cluster of stronger storms is currently moving east across Las Animas County. These storms may produce gusty winds to near 50 mph and half inch hail. More isolated, weaker showers and thunderstorms are bubbling up along the I-25 corridor from Pueblo to Trinidad. An outflow boundary is currently dropping south, and is currently located north of Highway 50. This may provide the focus for additional thunderstorm development this evening, mainly along and north of Highway 50. Hail to near 1 inch and thunderstorm wind gusts to 60 mph may be possible through 10 PM. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The anticipated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon have developed and pushed away from the mountains into parts of the I-25 corridor. The more robust thunderstorms have been across the Pikes Peak region and El Paso county, where strongest forcing/focus has remained. While MLCAPE has lowered today, steep mid/low level lapse rates, this strong forcing, and increased shear has helped to offset the lacking CAPE. The current storms moving across El Paso county, while are on the stronger side with gusty winds and small hail likely, should remain sub severe as they push east over the next couple of hours. By early this evening, focus for any additional development will shift to the eastern plains mainly along and north of Highway 50. Forecast soundings continue to show some really dry air in place, that could be another limiting factor. However, surface trough and low/mid level baroclinic zone along with an instability axis trying to inch its way west could be enough support/focus to provide at least an isolated storm or two. If any storm does develop this evening, it will have the potential to become strong to severe given the much higher shear and instability in place. Given the high temp and dewpoint spread and latest RAP analysis showing high DCAPE in place, the main concern will be damaging wind gusts. Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon as surface trough and boundary approach from the north. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will once again be across the mountains, Palmer Divide, and eastern plains along and north of HWY 50. Highest shear and instability will also be in this location, and can't completely rule out some stronger development. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Tuesday still looks like the best day this week for more widespread precipitation over the eastern plains, as the axis of a large upper- level trough is slated to make its way through the region during the day. By midday, the associated cold front is expected to push south across the plains, with residual low-level moisture and post-frontal upslope flow being more than enough to initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area. Models currently indicate a potential for strong to severe storms later in the afternoon, specifically over the Palmer Divide and eastern plains, with over 800 J/kg of CAPE and over 30 knots of bulk shear possible. Possible hazards at this time include winds up to 60 mph, 1 inch hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Should the front stall out over the plains, the enhanced low-level convergence will increase the chances of severe weather occuring. Thanks to the front, Tuesday will be a bit cooler, with highs expected in the high-70s to mid-80s over most of the area. Wednesday is still expected to be more of a transition day, as flow aloft turns from northwesterly to more west-southwesterly. The flow will generally stay dry, but the shift in direction will allow for temperatures to increase once again, quickly climbing back into the mid-90s over the plains by the weekend. These warming and generally dry conditions should persist through Sunday. With the dry air present and increased winds possible with the incoming trough on Tuesday, spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible over the San Luis Valley. Additionally, the SLV, upper Arkansas River Valley, and the I-25 corridor have a low chance for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 VFR conditions at all three terminals through Monday mid to late morning. KALS will remain VFR through Monday evening. Winds at KALS may gust to near 25 kts during the afternoon hours. At KCOS and KPUB, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and early evening. A cold front will turn winds northeasterly by late afternoon to early evening, with gusts near 25 kts. Low stratus will likely begin to form by late evening into the overnight hours. Mozley && .CLIMATE... Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Here are the record high temperatures for today and tomorrow. Record Highs for 9/12 ALS 84 degrees set in 1990 COS 91 degrees set in 2018 PUB 97 degrees set in 2018 Record Highs for 9/13 ALS 87 degrees set in 1990 COS 94 degrees set in 1990 PUB 100 degrees set in 1990 && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY CLIMATE...GARBEROGLIO