847 
FXUS64 KLZK 130507
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

The beginning of the period will see predominant VFR conditions. The 
central and southern terminals (KLIT/KPBF/KADF/KHOT/KLLQ) will see 
the lowering of cigs to MVFR conditions beginning around 15Z. 
Lifting of the cig is expected to VFR conditions across all sites by 
21Z. Rain is possible for the southeastern sites (KLLQ/KPBF) after 
17Z. Winds will begin variable and then shift to out of the south 
across all sites by 12Z, w/ wind gusts upwards of 17 knots for the
site of KHRO between 18Z and 20Z. 

&&


PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

The weekend wl close out on a quiet note acrs AR as high pres rmns 
in control ovr the region. The placement of the rdg has kept a dry 
airmass in place ovr the FA. Once again seeing hazy skies as smoke 
fm the western wildfires conts to stream acrs the middle of the 
nation, keeping mid aftn temps mainly in the 80s.

Models rmn is good agreement today showing the aforementioned sfc 
rdg breaking down acrs the Mid-South, allowing low lvl gulf moisture 
to advect into the FA later tngt and Mon. This wl result in low 
clouds incrsg fm the S heading into Mon as corresponding Td readings 
climb back into the mid 60s and lower 70s. Look for mainly sctd 
diurnal showers and a few storms Mon aftn as well, esp acrs cntrl 
and srn AR. Highs Mon aftn wl be similar to today.

Looking for pretty much a repeat for Tue, with more clouds and a 
contd chc for mainly aftn sctd convection. Primary focus for PoPs wl 
rmn acrs the SE half of the FA where more sig moisture wl reside. 
High temps Tue wl be generally be in the 80s due to abundant cloud 
cover.

Focus going into the latter part of the week wl turn to the eventual 
track of TS Nicholas and what effects the feature may have on the FA.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

An upper trough will be over the north central part of the U.S. to 
begin the period with Tropical Storm Nicholas near the Texas and 
Louisiana border. High pressure aloft will build over the south 
Thursday and Friday and continue through Sunday.

The main concern for the long term period will be the effects of 
Tropical Storm Nicholas. The system will move into east Texas 
Wednesday morning then slow down, moving to near west central 
Louisiana by Friday morning. Rainfall will be the main concern. Rain 
chances will continue through much of the period. The best rain 
chances will be in the south and east, where the highest amounts 
will be as well. At this time, the 7 day QPF is expected to be about 
an inch in southern Arkansas. Much heavier rain is expected along 
the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will generally be above normal through 
the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...234