216 FXUS63 KDDC 121103 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 603 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...Updated for aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A weak frontal boundary is pushing into western Kansas early this morning. Western Kansas still resides along the southern edge of the westerlies where fronts often are found. During the warm months, low level moisture is often more abundant on the cool side of the fronts where the effect of deep vertical mixing with intense heating is less. On the warm side, hot temperatures and drier surface air are usually found. Upslope flow behind the front this afternoon may result in thunderstorms to the west of Kansas on the elevated terrain. These storms may drift into far western Kansas tonight before weakening. The storms may start out severe to the north and west per the Day 1 SPC outlook, but then weaken before reaching into Hamilton, Kearny and Scott counties. Afternoon temperatures today will be near 100 along and south of the front from Dodge City south and eastward and several degrees cooler north of the front in Garden City, Syracuse and Scott City. The frontal boundary will be in a similar position Monday with hot air to the south and slightly cooler and more humid air to the north. Looks as though most of southwestern Kansas will be on the hotter side, but keep in mind that these fronts are sometimes farther south than expected when overnight storms are more expansive and send out cool outflow that shoves the effective front southward. There is a very small chance of t-storms once again forming on upslope and elevated heating on the western high plains and then possibly drifting into far western Kansas later in the evening. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A shortwave trough is expected to approach western Kansas Tuesday evening, with the southern edge of the westerlies into the southern plains. 500mb temperatures are progged to drop from the -6 to -7 range down to around -9 to -10C. With moisture continuing to collect along and north of the front, along with the mid level cooling associated with the shortwave trough, there is a little better chance of t-storms from late afternoon into the night time hours. We are getting to that time of year when evapotranspiration from vegetation is lessening so that dewpoints won't be as high as they would have been back in June or July with a similar pattern. Vertical shear will be increasing by Tuesday along with the moderate instability so that any storms during the late afternoon and early evening could be severe with large hail and high winds. Scattered afternoon storms may grow upscale into a larger cluster during the evening, but details of this are not known so far out. Temperatures will be a little cooler Tuesday afternoon; but it still could reach the mid or upper 90s along the Oklahoma state line. Cooler weather can be expected by Wednesday in the wake of the front with mainly 80-85F temperatures for highs. Upper level ridging will build across the southern and central plains again by Thursday and Friday, resulting in a return to hot weather that will last through the weekend. It may be tough to hit 100, but mid to upper 90s are certainly possible, mainly from Dodge City west to the Colorado state line, with slightly cooler readings (albeit more humid) to the east. The next frontal passage is expected by 20-22 September. The strength of this front is still not known. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A weak frontal boundary will stall near the TAF sites this afternoon and tonight. Southwest winds will persist ahead of the front at KDDC/KLBL and KHYS and then become light tonight. VFR conditions can be expected. There is a small chance of thunderstorms after 03z at KGCK and KHYS as storms move eastward from the high plains and weaken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 100 65 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 93 62 100 63 / 0 10 0 0 EHA 97 62 99 63 / 0 10 0 0 LBL 100 63 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 95 63 95 64 / 0 10 0 10 P28 99 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Finch