546 FXUS64 KLUB 102319 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly winds will become a bit breezy tomorrow afternoon. /WCI && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ SHORT TERM... Not much weather will be occurring in the next 24 hours with our region controlled by an expansive upper level ridge. This ridge was currently centered over northern New Mexico and will edge a little closer to the area by this time tomorrow. This will keep conditions dry and warm for another day. Temperatures will continue to run around ten degrees above seasonal averages on Saturday. Surface lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado on Saturday afternoon will bring surface winds up to between 15 and 20kt. LONG TERM... Fairly good agreement in long term with medium range models. Dominant upper ridge is centered over the central and southern Rockies and this ridge will squash convection potential for the next several days. A series of shortwaves will move along the U.S Canada border beginning this weekend which will have the effect of flattening this ridge and bringing down temperatures a few degrees, with near 90 on the Caprock and mid 90s in the Rolling Plains late in the weekend into early next week. More significant trough will move eastward from the northern Rockies with decent height falls into the Ohio Valley and Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will likely drag a weak front down across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some model signals of precipitation during that time frame especially across areas north/northeast of Lubbock. Stayed closely with NBM pops with slight chance rain/thunder. Slightly cooler in the 80s with an uptick in cloud cover midweek. Potential upper low near the Louisiana/upper Texas Gulf Coast could be a significant rain producer Sunday and beyond, but well east of West Texas. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/01/06