263 
FXUS64 KLUB 100807
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
307 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Very little change in the short term forecast overnight as the 
center of a 596 decameter upper level closed high makes slow SSE 
progress from southern Colorado into northern New Mexico. The 
influence of surface southwesterly wind will outweigh weak 
northerly H50 flow aloft resulting in daytime highs around 10 
degrees above normal, in the mid 90s on the Caprock and around 100
(or slightly higher) across the Rolling Plains. Overnight lows 
will also be a few degrees higher than normal, mid 60s to low 70s 
by sunrise Saturday area wide.

.LONG TERM...
The amplified upper level ridge centered over New Mexico today
will become increasingly elongated across the southern half of 
the CONUS through the weekend as upper level short wave energy
moves across the northern tier of the CONUS and adjacent territory
of southern Canada. Persistent height falls across the northern
states will further break down the upper ridge. Thus, after an
increase in temperatures under the increased heights early weekend
an slow a slight trend downward is expected into the early part 
of next week. Beyond Monday model solutions begin to diverge with 
some uncertainty regarding a cold front that may be able to 
undercut the upper ridge toward Wednesday of next week. Much will 
depend upon the latitude and sharpness of the short wave trough 
that will help the front move southward; however, the models 
diverge significantly enough at this time to leave the possibility
of frontal passage and storm chances rather muddled. Will 
continue with the idea of keeping the front to the north of the 
forecast area, thus keeping temperatures relatively warm and 
precip mention out of the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be low despite above normal 
temperatures and RH values into the teens by mid afternoon in many 
locations. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon, but fuels 
still remain low.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/55