032 FXUS64 KMAF 081927 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 227 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front moving through the area is nearing the I-20 corridor at issuance, and will continue its southward progression toward FST this afternoon. A widespread cumulus field will develop, with thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening. While FST looks to have the best chance to see storms, development may impact other terminals as well, and uncertainty in timing and location of potential storms precludes mention at this time. Thus, will monitor and amend as needed. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail with N/NE winds gradually shifting to the E/SE through the period. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A weak cold front is currently progressing through the region, and is currently located just south of I-20. Behind the front, temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday, particularly across Southeast New Mexico where some locations remain in the upper 80s this afternoon. Elsewhere across the plains, temperatures have climbed into the lower and middle 90s. Earlier this morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms developed along and behind the front across the northern Permian Basin and portions of Southeast New Mexico, though this activity diminished, with a new resurgence in convection noted across portions of the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau within a widespread cumulus field that has developed this afternoon. A ridge anchored just west of the Four Corners is quickly building eastward into the region, lending to considerable uncertainty in convective trends this afternoon and evening. Increasing subsidence due to the building ridge is evidenced by decreasing midlevel moisture per water vapor imagery, and while the front is expected to act as a focus for convection this afternoon, light easterly to southeasterly winds ahead of the front limit the amount of convergence along the boundary. Diurnal heating, however, will be enough for storms to develop over portions of the area, though confidence is a bit higher for locations along and south of the front (particularly near and south of I-20), across the favored mountain areas, and to the lee of the higher terrain where easterly/northeasterly upslope flow will aid in development. A shortwave rounding the eastern periphery of the ridge may supplement convective activity this afternoon, however, given the ridge is building eastward more quickly than anticipated and per latest observational trends, much of the energy associated with this shortwave may remain just east of the area over the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. That said, there may still be some strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon, mainly across portions of the far southeastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, where gusty downburst winds will be the main concern along with lightning and locally heavy rain. Storms that develop will diminish fairly quickly this evening with the loss of heating, paving the way for a quiet night with lows dropping into the 60s across the plains, lower 70s through the river valleys , and upper 50s possible in some of the mountain areas. Starting Thursday, hot and dry will be the rule as the aforementioned ridge continues to broaden over the region, mitigating any precipitation chances and resulting in a substantial warming trend. High temperatures Thursday afternoon are expected to climb well above normal into the middle and upper 90s for most, with 100s through the Rio Grande Valley, followed by lows in the 60s and 70s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The heat will continue to build into this weekend. Temperatures are expected to top out well above normal on Friday and Saturday as ridging aloft envelops the forecast region. The upper ridge will be anomalously strong for this time of year w/500 hpa hghts around 594-595 dam. In addition, 850 hpa temps will range from 28-30C, especially along and west of the Pecos River valley. With deep mixing aloft anticipated, sfc temperatures should soar into the upper 90s w/some locations flirting with or reaching 100F both Friday and Saturday afternoon. People working outdoors should be mindful of the heat, take frequent breaks, and drink plenty of fluids. By Sunday, the strength of the upper ridge will begin to wane as a low amplitude trof enters the Central Plains. The center of the upper ridge will also retrograde wwd into AZ/NM. As hghts aloft decrease, high temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday with near normal temperatures expected by early next week. Rain chances will remain nil this weekend as dewpoints struggle to reach 50F. Unfortunately, we will have to wait until the middle of next week before precipitation chances return to the area. Until then, hot and dry weather will persist. -Salerno && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 67 96 68 98 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 66 96 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 100 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 96 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 89 57 91 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 97 68 99 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 68 96 69 98 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 70 98 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...84