875 FXUS64 KMAF 081726 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front moving through the area is nearing the I-20 corridor at issuance, and will continues its southward progression toward FST this afternoon. A widespread cumulus field will develop, with thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening. While FST looks to have the best chance to see storms, development may impact other terminals as well, and uncertainty in timing and location of potential storms precludes mention at this time. Thus, will monitor and amend as needed. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail with N/NE winds gradually shifting to the E/SE through the period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The upper level ridge continues to dominate the western US with our area remaining on the eastern periphery. A weak cold front moves through the region tonight which will act to shift our surface winds out of the northeast and slightly cooler high temperatures compared to Tuesday can be expected. Highs remain in the mid 90s across a majority of the region. Convective temperatures should be reached during the after and a weak disturbance enters the region by afternoon along the periphery of the ridge. The combination of convective temperatures being reached and weak forcing will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon across eastern portions of the Permian Basin through the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau areas. Instability will be fairly moderate with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/Kg expected, though shear remains very weak. None the less, deep inverted-V soundings should allow for the potential of gusty winds and small hail with the strongest thunderstorms. SPC has outlined a marginal risk for portions of our area due to this possibility. Very heavy rainfall is also possible with PWATs approaching 1.5". Any thunderstorm activity should weaken and end shortly after dark this evening. After thunderstorms end, that should be the last of the precipitation for our area for some time. Lows tonight will be near average with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most locations. As the high builds to our west, temperatures will slowly increase and by Thursday high temperatures once again return to the upper 90s for much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Summers return was inevitable as temperatures are going to warm up in the extended. An upper lvl high centered over the W CONUS will dive over the Four Corners early tomorrow morning. The upper lvl high is going to amplify ridging across the Intermountain W increasing temperatures into the weekend. Therefore, persistent subsidence is going to hinder precip and enhance clear skies. The aforementioned high will build over NM by Fri increasing 500 mb heights to 596 dm. As a result, a LLTR is going to build across much of the region. Temperatures are forecasted to reach the upper 90s to 100s for the plains and mid 100s along the Rio Grande. A lack of moisture transport and extended drying should decrease dew points into the upper 40s to low 50s. This will lead to cooler lows (near normal) and higher highs (few degrees above normal). Friday is forecasted to be the warmest day, but temperatures will begin their trend down by the end of the weekend. Models have the ridge flattening over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains with troughing present over the High Plains. Lowering heights and a retrograding ridge should drop temps to normal by Sun. The ridging pattern stays persistent in the extended, however troughing over the central plains Wed could drop a front into the area, but that might be an optimistic outlook. Precip remains nil in the extended thanks to our long-time friend "Subsidence." && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 67 96 68 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 94 66 96 65 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 97 71 99 69 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 94 67 95 67 / 20 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 65 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 92 64 93 65 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 88 59 89 57 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 95 67 96 68 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 95 68 96 68 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 97 69 98 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...84