337 FXUS65 KCYS 062354 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 554 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An extremely quiet weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week as substantial upper-level ridging becomes established across the western CONUS w/ a 596-597 dam high centered across the Great Basin. This feature will move very little in the coming days with generally warm and dry conditions prevailing. A strong short- wave sweeping across the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes region should keep temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than today, but temperatures will begin to quickly rebound by Wednesday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward. A bit breezy across southeast Wyoming today given strong low-level mixing and appreciable flow aloft, but winds will not be quite as strong over the next few days as the center of the ridge drifts toward the Four Corners. This should keep our overall fire weather concerns low after today despite the very low minimum RH values each afternoon especially along/west of I-25. .LONG TERM...(Thursday - Monday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 No major changes to the long term forecast through Friday. Quieter weather ahead as we move into the middle of next week with a fairly significant blocking pattern expected to build across the Great Basin, bringing much drier conditions across southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Daytime highs are expected to be a touch hotter Thursday into Friday with areas peaking into the Mid-90s east of I-25 for both days, which are well above averages for this time of year. Fire weather conditions will remain a concern throughout the week, as RH values drop to the mid-teens and even in the single digits across Converse County combined with increased wind speeds west of the Laramie Range. Will most likely need to think about fire weather headlines for both Thursday and Friday in the next couple of days. As we transition into the weekend, long range models have remained consistent with a disturbance in the Eastern Pacific pushing its way northward along the coast. Main differences include the exact tracking of this system, with the most current runs indicating a more north/northwesterly track, pushing the stronger moisture advection just west of the CWA. In addition, the models are having a difficult time locking into a solution for the weekend, instead reverting towards a more zonal pattern. With that in mind, it will be difficult to button down exact impacts for this weekend with a possible pattern shift expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 553 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 VFR conditions forecast for TAFs. Latest observations indicate smoke is slightly lowering the visibility at some of the TAF sites. However the visibility is still well above MVFR. The breezy winds at some of the sites will become light in the next hour or two. A cold front will move in from the north after 9z. Behind it the winds will turn to a northerly direction east of the Laramie Range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across most of southeast Wyoming where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until late this evening. Elevated concerns are possible across western Nebraska, but winds will likely remain below 10 to 15 mph through most of the day. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, but winds are forecast to be lighter than today. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301>308-310. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...JTL FIRE WEATHER...TJT