222 FXUS62 KMFL 062340 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 740 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period, however brief periods of SHRA/TSRA may impacts the eastern terminals through about 01-02Z. Affected locations may experience temporary CIG/VIS reductions. Inland moving Atlantic sea-breeze is currently allowing for SE winds around 05-10 kt over the east coast, however winds should become light and variable overnight tonight. A similar pattern appears in store for tomorrow, with convection beginning around 16-18Z and waning around 23-01Z. && .UPDATE... Convection initiated later than previous days, and with thunderstorms developing on the back side of an inland moving Atlantic sea-breeze, locally high rainfall totals of 2-3 inches have been observed in a few locations including Kendall Lakes and the Redlands. A few storms presently linger over the interior, however with the decrease of instability and forcing mechanisms, convection will likely wane within the next 1-2 hours. Therefore expect mostly dry conditions for most metropolitan areas to round out Labor Day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 329 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021) SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)... As the trough to our north weakens and dissipates, a slug of slightly drier air ahead of an approaching surge of tropical moisture had moved into peninsular Florida. Aloft, a trough continues to linger over the eastern two-thirds of the United States which has kept the pattern relatively unsettled and this trend will continue through the end of Tuesday. As the disturbance from the Yucatan emerges into the Gulf, some moisture could approach the region which allow for some additional shower and storm chances. The emergence of a bit more southerly component to the flow could allow for the convective focus to shift a bit more inland compared to previous days but with higher coverage overall due to the influx in moisture. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the most part though some isolated patches could reach the mid 90s if they stay cloud-free longer into the day. The concern for strong storms will remain with the impacts from strong wind gusts, frequent lightning activity, and localized flooding from heavy rain remaining in through Tuesday. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Through the remainder of the workweek and into the weekend, ridging aloft will build over the northern Caribbean placing a somewhat more active southwesterly flow over the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure will continue to nose in from the western Atlantic, which should transition surface wind to a more southeasterly direction, albeit a very light flow regime. The overall diurnal summerlike convective pattern will persist with only minor changes day to day. The best rain chances will be across the interior, but a nonzero rain chance along the coast will be possible if earlier development takes place along the sea/gulf breeze. Looking to our west a weak tropical disturbance is forecast to get caught up in the aforementioned southwesterly flow and then become entangled with a weak stationary frontal boundary along the I-10 corridor in northern Florida sometime mid to late week. Globals suggest most of the rainfall will be north of our region, but there could be some enhancement to the daily convection especially along and north of Alligator Alley. The GFS seems to be a bit more bullish with QPF/POPs, especially Wednesday PM through Thursday AM. Decided to introduce mentionable POPs during this time to compensate for the wetter GFS, but kept confidence on the lower end to blend with the drier GEM and ECMWF. Going into the weekend the H5 ridge begins to build over the region (~593dam), which should keep temperatures at or slightly above average for (then) mid September. With the light low level flow, more sea breeze induced showers and storms can be expected, but perhaps coverage may be slightly lower given the subsidence aloft with the ridge. && MARINE... A light to moderate west-southwesterly flow continues over the Gulf coastal waters, while a more southerly weak wind will return across the Atlantic coastal waters. Generally benign marine conditions continue through the beginning of the work week, outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. A minor east swell from Hurricane Larry remains in model solutions, which seems to reach the Palm Beach and Broward coastal waters by late tomorrow with increasing hazardous conditions over the offshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 91 77 92 / 40 50 10 50 West Kendall 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 10 40 Opa-Locka 75 92 76 92 / 40 50 10 50 Homestead 75 90 75 90 / 30 50 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 77 90 / 40 50 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 90 78 91 / 30 50 10 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 75 91 / 40 50 10 50 West Palm Beach 75 91 75 92 / 30 50 10 50 Boca Raton 75 90 76 91 / 30 50 10 50 Naples 77 90 77 90 / 10 50 10 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...Bhatti Tonight/Tuesday and Marine...RAG Tuesday Night through Monday...Frye Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami