196 FXUS64 KOUN 062334 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Other than some ongoing scattered mid to upper level clouds across southern and central Oklahoma and far portions of northwestern Oklahoma, clear skies and warmer temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow, with another increase in highs of three to four degrees to where highs will mostly be in the upper 90s across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Late Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough will begin digging into the Great Lakes region, and begin pulling a cold front through Kansas and begin entering far northwestern Oklahoma, resulting in strong northerly winds behind the front. Zwink && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 As the cold front moves through northern and central Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday, a few showers/storms may develop along the front. With an upper-level shortwave moving through, decent instability (>2000 J/kg MLCAPE), shear (>20kts 0-6km shear north of I-40), and lapse rates, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out mainly north of I-40. The concern will be mainly an organized storm with possible severe hail/wind. Limited moisture will likely prevent any storm development from being widespread. Behind the front, temperatures will cool again briefly, with highs on Wednesday in the 80s across most of Oklahoma, while southern Oklahoma and western north Texas will still have highs in the lower 90s. As the upper level ridge continues to become more established over the region later in the week, southerly winds will quickly return and warm temperatures back up into the 90s across the region, with a return to the triple digits over the weekend. There is starting to be an increasing concern in potential fire weather conditions with the reduced intensity of moisture return and lack of recent widespread precipitation. Zwink && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. A cold front will make a move toward northern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon, likely moving through KPNC before 00Z. && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 No upper air flights are planned at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 94 68 87 / 0 0 20 0 Hobart OK 70 98 67 91 / 0 0 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 96 70 92 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 69 98 62 87 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 68 97 62 87 / 0 10 20 0 Durant OK 65 93 68 92 / 0 0 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...26