320 FXUS64 KBRO 062333 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and moderately gusty winds will prevail across Deep South Texas this afternoon. Winds will die down and become light later this evening. East to southeasterly winds will increase late morning into the afternoon for Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail for the period due to High Pressure over the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Latest surface analysis and surface observations across Texas show a weak stationary frontal boundary draped across the central part of the state. Best precipitation chances will stay focused along and just ahead of the boundary and north of the BRO CWA through this afternoon and evening. That said, there could still be an isolated shower or two this afternoon along a very weak seabreeze that tries to develop, but most locations will remain hot and dry through the rest of the day. The aforementioned front is expected to lift northward and dissipate late tonight into Tuesday morning. However, low/mid- level moisture pooling along and ahead of the front may drift southward into the region, increasing PWATs during the day on Tuesday. As a result, this may help promote a better active seabreeze event tomorrow afternoon, with a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms along the east-to-west moving boundary. With the presence of moderate subsidence still occurring aloft, kept PoPs at a conservative 20% along and east of US 281/I-69C for now. Faintly cooler daytime temperatures are forecast tomorrow afternoon due to an increase of cloud cover and precipitation chances. Daytime highs will still push into the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s out west, but will be closer to seasonal average. Meanwhile, low temperatures will be close to average as well, maybe even a degree or two below average. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): 500mb ridge across the western United States Wednesday will shift eastward across the four corners region Thursday providing an increase in subsidence across south Texas. Rain chances have diminished across deep south Texas as a result and hot and relatively dry conditions will persist through the rest of the week into the weekend. The global models continue to prog rain chances developing across the CWA...mainly across the coastal sections...Sunday into Monday as low to mid level moisture increases across the western Gulf of Mexico as 500mb inverted trough moves into the Bay of Campeche late Saturday into Sunday. Will continue to mention a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern portions of deep south Texas Sunday into Monday. MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): High pressure and a weak pressure gradient in place across the western Gulf will maintain very favorable marine conditions through through Tuesday night with light to moderate onshore winds and seas generally 2 feet or less. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases through the short term, with locally higher winds and seas near any thunderstorms. Wednesday through Saturday...Light northeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday with a weak broad area of low pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain weak across the lower Texas coast Thursday as a weak cold front moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico before stalling. Light northeast to east winds will prevail across the coastal waters Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure across east Texas moves eastward. Light east winds will veer to the southeast on Saturday with high pressure across the mid- Atlantic U. S. coast and low pressure/trough across the south- central plains of the United States. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 76 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 73 97 73 96 / 10 20 10 10 MCALLEN 77 99 75 99 / 10 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 102 74 102 / 10 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 10 20 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 65-Soria/Aviation