035 FXUS65 KLKN 062152 CCA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 244 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will bring hot afternoons and dry weather to the region through at least mid week. Record highs are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, though overnight lows will cool into the 40s and 50s. Winds will remain light. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Satellite loop shows some mid to high clouds in the western part of the state. But that is about it as not too much going on weatherwise this afternoon as northern and central Nevada resides under a strong ridge of high pressure. Look for the quiet conditions to continue through the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s, though some of the cooler valley locations could see the readings drop into the 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper level ridging will continue both afternoons. The result will be plenty of sunshine along with near record to record tmperatures. Highs will be in the low to upper 90s across the area. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s, though again some of the cooler locales could see temperatures in the 30s. Winds will be light with occasional breezes during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Tuesday The high pressure system that has stayed over the region continues to keep afternoon highs on Thursday approximately 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we would expect for this point in September. There is a pretty fair chance that some locations rival, or even exceed, records. Temps are to begin a gradual cooling tend after Thursday. Unfortunately, this is the most confidence we have in the long term forecast. Beginning overnight Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance diverge significantly across the board and confidence is low through the long term with respect to where active weather sets up as well as how much precipitation, if any, makes it to the surface. What we can say at this time with a sliver of confidence is that Friday looks to be the day when active weather could be seen at any location across the CWA. Through the weekend and into next week shifts the best chances for active weather to the eastern half of the CWA. Specific locations are difficult to narrow down at this time, as well as whether those locations see dry thunderstorms, light showers, or both. What models can agree on, somewhat, for the long term is that this chance for some weather results from the high pressure system shifting southeastward Thursday and Friday. This puts our area on the periphery of the high, and a couple of shortwaves clipping Nevada helps provide some instability to possibly trigger active weather. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through tonight with light winds at all terminals. Some smoke and haze still lingers in the air at KWMC and KEKO, resulting in Vis dropping to 5SM overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Very dry air remains in place through at least mid week, with near record hot daytime temperatures and relatively cool nights. Winds will remain fairly light under strong high pressure. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 86/84/84/86