151 FXUS65 KTFX 062126 CCA AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 324 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... It will be a bit less warm and definitely less windy tomorrow, compared with today, with morning sunshine possibly being replaced by some afternoon clouds. Hot, dry and windy conditions return on Wednesday and Thursday. A few chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for late this week into the weekend, but it may very well remain warmer than normal into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... This evening through Tuesday...Winds will drop off tonight, and should remain fairly light tomorrow. This will be courtesy of an upper-level ridge that builds into the area and becomes the dominant feature across the region. Confidence is high in the forecast of a warm and dry day, with generally light winds. Wednesday through Thursday...An upper-level shortwave moves northeastward along the leading edge of an approaching trough, flattening the ridge a bit and causing the upper level pattern to become more zonal. Southwesterly flow becomes more westerly. Expect more hot, dry, and windy weather. As to the consideration of fire weather conditions, confidence is high in terms of hot temperatures and low RH values. However, confidence is moderate in terms of wind speeds reaching fire critical criteria across at least some of the north-central/central Montana fire weather zones, though that confidence is increasing from previous shifts. Winds were increased over the NBM deterministic guidance for both Wednesday and Thursday, using the NBM v4.1 75th percentile winds and gusts as a guide. The v4.0 median/deterministic is almost certainly too low, based on historical biases and how it has handled these past few windy days. Friday through next Monday...Model guidance solutions begin to diverge late week into the weekend. A look into the extended period would suggest a series of perturbations passing through the upper level pattern across Montana. However, models disagree on timing and strength, as well as any precipitation chances. Thus, for now POPs are generally kept to slight chance or at most chance (50% or less), owing to that uncertainty. There are no very strong troughs or widespread precip events forecasted, so at best it is likely to be some isolated to scattered shower and t-storm activity across the area. -Kredensor/Fogleman && .AVIATION... 1215 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 (06/18Z TAF period) Outside of some MVFR visibility in areas of haze and smoke, VFR conditions should prevail across the area. Strong winds, with gusts over 30kts in spots, are expected across much of north-central MT. It will still be gusty in SW MT, but probably not quite as strong. Some mountain wave activity and at least moderate turbulence is possible A front pushing south across the area this afternoon will bring a shift to NW-N'ly winds, which then decrease this evening, along with helping to clear the haze from the area. -Kredensor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today's Red Flag Warning expires at 9 PM this evening - we have seen single digit RH in SW Montana, but more generally in the teens and low 20s in central and north-central MT. Winds have been elevated, but haven't been consistently hitting critical thresholds. Ridging will allow for winds to remain below critical fire weather criteria on Tuesday. Expect a return to hot, dry, and windy conditions for at least Wednesday and Thursday, which look to be at least close to critical thresholds. -Kredensor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 45 82 46 92 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 44 78 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 51 86 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 44 84 45 92 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 34 79 34 82 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 45 85 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 46 80 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 47 78 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern Beaverhead National Forest...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Gallatin National Forest. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls