876 FXUS65 KVEF 062112 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 212 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to remain through midweek. Chances for monsoonal moisture returning are still possible late week, but remain mostly isolated. Enough moisture will move into the area late week to suppress temperatures a bit below excessive heat levels. && .DISCUSSION...Today through the upcoming weekend. Strong high pressure system overhead will allow temperatures to be unseasonably warm through Wednesday. As a result, temperatures will warm up 7-10 degrees above seasonal normals and skies will remain mostly clear. With the ridge overhead, smoke from wildfires to our north should generally flow around the high's circulation, keeping the more dense smoke out of southern NV, southeast CA, and northwest AZ. The current Excessive Heat Warnings look on track, covering all areas that will see High and Very High HeatRisk levels. Ensembles are continuing to track the ridge center east through Tuesday and Wednesday, ending up over the Four Corners region late Wednesday. With the ridge center in a more favorable location (centered over the Four Corners region), southeast flow will allow for monsoonal moisture to filter back into our CWA. Additionally, tropical moisture may make another appearance as ensembles have continued to advertise a TS moving northwest toward the CA Baja late this week into early this coming weekend. Albeit, precipitable water values aren't too impressive at this time, leaving only slight chance PoPs across mainly the higher terrain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. With increased moisture Thursday-Saturday, temperatures will be suppressed a tad, but remain a few degrees above seasonal normals through the next 7 days. The only wild card at this point that may prevent moisture from moving into our area late in the week would be a shortwave digging into the Great Basin region - which is currently advertised the strongest in the ECMWF. Even so, this shortwave looks very weak, and the strong ridge over the Four Corners region should remain the dominate weather feature through the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Typical diurnal wind pattern expected through Tuesday with northeast to east winds during the afternoon at 7 kts or less and overnight southwest winds around 7 kts. Other than a few high clouds, expect generally clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Wind speeds generally less 10 knots favoring typical diurnal trends can be expected across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin through Tuesday. No operationally significant cloud cover expected. && .CLIMATE...Numerous locations have the potential to tie or break record high and warm low temperatures through Wednesday. The table below shows the record high temperature, the year the record was last set, and the forecast temperature for all of our climate sites. MAX HIGH MONDAY, SEPT 6 TUESDAY, SEPT 7 WEDNESDAY, SEPT 8 Record(Yr)/Fcst Record(Yr)/Fcst Record (Yr)/Fcst Las Vegas 114(2020)/107 108(1977)/108 110(1979)/107 Bishop 104(2020)/101 102(2020)/103 100(1979)/103 Needles 120(2020)/108 117(2020)/112 115(2018)/110 Barstow-Daggett 116(2020)/107 109(2020)/108 108(2018)/109 Kingman 110(2020)/100 107(2020)/101 105(1915)/101 Desert Rock 109(2020)/102 102(1979)/104 102(2018)/105 Death Valley 123(2020)/118 121(1932)/119 120(2018)/120 The table below shows the record warm low temperature, the year the record was last set, and the forecast temperature for all of our climate sites. WARM LOW MONDAY, SEPT 6 TUESDAY, SEPT 7 WEDNESDAY, SEPT 8 Record(Yr)/Fcst Record(Yr)/Fcst Record (Yr)/Fcst Las Vegas 84(2020)/81 84(2020)/82 81(2018)/83 Bishop 61(1950)/52 63(2020)/55 63(2020)/55 Needles 88(2019)/82 88(2012)/83 87(1986)/84 Barstow-Daggett 83(2020)/76 82(2020)/77 78(1974)/78 Kingman 77(1917)/71 72(1949)/71 84(1914)/72 Desert Rock 78(1989)/70 74(2020)/72 75(2012)/73 Death Valley 96(2013)/87 98(1913)/89 92(1979)/91 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Peters AVIATION...Gorelow CLIMATE...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter