497 FXUS65 KPUB 062054 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 254 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...Dry with a dry cool front moving in tomorrow with increasing haze/smoke... Currently... Similar to yesterday at this time, skies were clear over nearly the entire area. A bit more moisture was noted over the far south parts of the fcst area and a couple of showers were noted along the NM/CO border. Ambient temps at 2 pm were warm with temps ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains with upper 70s in the valleys. Rest of Today... Except for some isolated -tsra late this afternoon over the CO/NM border, expect it to be sunny and warm with diurnal winds. Tonight... Clear and dry. With the NW flow continuing in the lower atmosphere, smoke/haze with gradually increase as the night wears on. Temps towards morning will be similar to this mornings low temps. Tomorrow... A cool front will move down the plains from mid to late morning. Winds will shift to the north and become breezy for an hour or two and then will gradually veer with time becoming upslope by later in the afternoon over the plains. Unfortunately, very little in the way of low level moisture is associated with the incoming frontal system so I do not anticipate any precip tomorrow afternoon. Temps tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today over the plains. Spotty marginal critical fire weather conditions will be possible across N Pueblo/E Fremont/far S El Paso counties, and the far southeast plains due to the gusty winds and low humidity values. One thing that will be different about tomorrow is skies will likely become hazier/smoky due to the northerly flow aloft, which will push the smoky skies from the western fires into our region. Please continue to monitor air quality forecast from the Colorado Department of Health and Environment regarding air quality alerts/forecasts for our region. \/Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The upper-level high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the rest of this week. As a result, dry conditions are expected to continue with little or no precipitation outside of the chance for an isolated shower over the mountains during the afternoons, fueled by diurnal heating. Critical fire weather conditions are still not expected at this time, mainly due to a lack of strong winds. However, it will be quite warm and dry, so fuels will continue to cure across the area and conditions will have to be watched should winds manage to pick up. A trough may impact the area sometime around this weekend, which could cool off temperatures slightly and increase precipitation chances over the mountains. However, models are still in disagreement on when this could occur. Deterministic models currently have the trough moving in sometime on Saturday, while some of the long-range ensembles hold off on things until after the weekend. Otherwise, main weather concern for this week will be high temperatures approaching or breaking records across the area, including our three main climate sites. Record table: Alamosa: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 86 - 2020 & 1959 9/8: 87 - 1977 9/9: 84 - 1979 9/10: 84 - 1979 9/11: 83 - 1990 & 1959 Colorado Springs: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 92 - 1959 9/8: 94 - 1959 9/9: 92 - 1979 9/10: 90 - 1979 & 1974 9/11: 90 - 2018 Pueblo: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 100- 2002 9/8: 99 - 1977 9/9: 98 - 1979 9/10: 99 - 1979 9/11: 97 - 2018 & 1979 && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 VFR condition are anticipated through early tomorrow for the 3 taf sites KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds tonight will be light and diurnally driven. For tomorrow, a cool front will move south and affect KCOS and KPUB during the 15-16Z time frame. Winds will shift to the north and become modestly gusty for a couple of hours before veering and becoming upslope. Smoke/Haze will be on the increase tomorrow and this may drive visibility into the MVFR category at KCOS and KPUB (and possibly KALS) by the afternoon hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...HODANISH