249 FXUS64 KMAF 061922 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 222 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Similar to previous days, showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, though uncertainties regarding timing and location preclude mention at this time. Currently, FST looks to have the best chance to see storms, and less so at MAF, INK, and PEQ, thus will monitor and amend as needed. Otherwise, outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail with winds becoming southeasterly at all terminals. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The cold front that started moving through the region yesterday has progressed south toward I-10 this afternoon, and is expected to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A cumulus field has started developing in the vicinity of the front, as well as across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A few showers and storms have initiated over the Davis Mountains early this afternoon, with additional storms are possible across these areas as a result of orographic lift and diurnal heating. Isolated storms are also starting to develop over the eastern Permian Basin, though the area of greatest concern will be generally along and south of I-10 in closer proximity to the aforementioned front. Ample moisture remains in place over the region, thus locally heavy rainfall and flooding or flash flooding remain the primary concerns with storms through tonight, though gusty winds and small hail may be possible with stronger storms. Activity will gradually wane after sunset with lows tonight similar to last night, in the 60s and lower 70s for most of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. A ridge over the western CONUS will become increasingly amplified and begin building eastward Tuesday, resulting in increased subsidence and rising heights over the region. This will yield a quick warm-up Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching into the 90s across the plains, lower 100s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley, and upper 80s in the mountains. While most locations will stay dry, there remains potential for some afternoon thunderstorms over mainly the Davis Mountains and portions of the Big Bend Area. Storms that develop will quickly diminish after sunset, with a quiet and seasonably mild night ahead Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The heat is on in the extended! Upper ridging to our west will continue to build over the area midweek. While this ridge builds, a strong upper trough will move across the Great Lakes with models showing a weak cold front sliding into the area Wednesday between the two systems. This front looks dry and won't have much affect on temperatures other then to keep them steady in the low to mid 90's through Thursday. The center of the upper ridge is expected to migrate overhead Friday into the weekend leading to even hotter temperatures. We could even see some upper 90's to near 100 for portions of the area Friday and Saturday. Temperatures could cool early next week as the upper ridge breaks down. We have left the extended dry for now as subsidence looks to squash anything that tries to develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 98 72 97 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 70 95 68 93 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 66 87 66 83 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 65 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 58 88 59 86 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 69 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 70 94 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 70 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...84