455 FXUS65 KPUB 061752 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1152 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 416 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...Continued Drier and Warmer Temperatures, With Some Smoke... Today... A broad ridge over the western CONUS is continuing to build with a strengthening high pressure centered over the Great Basin region. This will allow for warmer and drier conditions to settle in over southeast Colorado as the mid level flow remains out of the northwest and draws in a drier airmass upstream with subsidence occurring, along with downsloping winds over the plains, and resulting in much warmer max temperatures than yesterday. Due to the drier air in place which is confirmed by water vapor imagery which shows a dry slot currently over western Colorado and advancing towards the area, along with subsidence, most of the CWA shall remain convection-free, even over the mountains. There will only be some lingering moisture along most southern portion of Colorado, and a boundary over the OK/TX pnhdl, which may cause isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening over the far southeast plains and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa area. However, some of the CAMs, such as the HRRR, do keep CAPE and convection initiation south of Colorado. The NAM Nest does keep an area of MUCAPE of around 1000 to 1500 J/kg over Baca County, although the boundary is well to the south and there is a lack of forcing. Given this, confidence is low that there will be any thunderstorms developing within the CWA. Due to wildfires in California, smoke from upstream will move in over most areas and create hazy conditions with some reduce visibilities in certain locations. Winds will generally be light and variable for most locations, picking up to a westerly direction later in the afternoon. Highs will be slightly warmer, especially over the plains with 90's and some areas close to 100 in the lower Arkansas River Valley, to the 80's for the upper Arkansas River Valley and the San Luis Valley, 60's to 70s for high country, with the fourteeners around 50. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 416 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An upper level closed high pressure center will propagate from central Nevada on Tuesday, to the Four Corners region by Wednesday evening, down to north-central New Mexico by Friday. The high pressure center is associated with very dry PWAT values, leading to dry conditions through Saturday. On Tuesday a weak cold front will travel over the eastern plains, which will help keep temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will range from the low to upper 90s with isolated 100s over the plains. The mountain valleys will be hot the entire period, with record to near record temperatures over Alamosa from Tuesday through Saturday. The rest of the mountain valley will be hot too, with values in the mid 80s to low 90s. There will be spotty critical fire weather conditions over eastern Las Animas and Baca Counties on Tuesday afternoon, but the RH and wind speeds will be marginal and the areal extent and temporal extent will be limited, as well. By the weekend, there is the possibility of a trough reaching Colorado, which will cool temperatures across the region and bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. Timing is a bit uncertain, but the deterministic GFS has the trough reaching Colorado by Saturday, whereas the ensembles (GEFS and EPS) have the trough reaching Colorado on Sunday. Record table: Alamosa: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 86 - 2020 & 1959 9/8: 87 - 1977 9/9: 84 - 1979 9/10: 84 - 1979 9/11: 83 - 1990 & 1959 Colorado Springs: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 92 - 1959 9/8: 94 - 1959 9/9: 92 - 1979 9/10: 90 - 1979 & 1974 9/11: 90 - 2018 Pueblo: Date, Prev Record, and Year of Prev Record 9/7: 100- 2002 9/8: 99 - 1977 9/9: 98 - 1979 9/10: 99 - 1979 9/11: 97 - 2018 & 1979 && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 VFR conditions are anticipated for the next 24 hours for all 3 taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Some haze may become an issue tomorrow, but sat pix this morning are not showing all that much smoke to our west. A cool front will cross the plains and affect KCOS and KPUB later tomorrow morning as winds will shift to the north and become modestly gusty by late morning tomorrow. No sensible weather (clouds/precip) is anticipated with the fropa. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...HODANISH