201 FXUS62 KFFC 061145 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 735 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... A flat upper ridge will dominate the southeast through the short term. The forecast area will be on the southern end of a trough moving across the Great Lakes. This should help push a frontal boundary through north GA today. The front should stall in the vicinity of central GA later today and remain nearly stationary through Tuesday. An area of showers currently over north GA should drift southward today. There could be thunder at any time...but the best chances for convection may be this afternoon into the evening as instability increases along the boundary. Have left low pops all night mainly over central GA as the boundary lingers in that area. For Tuesday...the remnants of the front may begin to drift back north so chance pops gradually spread back across much of the area. Max temperatures not as hot mainly over north GA today and Tuesday due to more clouds and increasing shower coverage. 41 .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... The extended forecast starts off with the frontal boundary that is moving into N GA right now has stalled somewhere along or just south of Interstate 20. The models are also showing a developing tropical wave over the central gulf that makes its way to the AL/FL coast by Wed morning. These features will be some of the main ingredients in the pattern for this forecast period. The upper level trough centered over the Great Lake states begins to dig south into the Mid MS river valley Wed morning. At the same time there is a second cold front that weakens substantially as it moves out of the Upper MS river valley and pushes into NW GA late Wed night. The tropical wave is still moving NE and begins to bring precip into central and south GA by Wed afternoon. The stalled frontal boundary over N GA will interact with the tropical moisture helping to enhance diurnally driven convective activity across the state Wed and Thu. Precipitation from this tropical wave could be fairly significant as the models continuing to show Precipitable water values increasing across central GA Wed/Thu into the 1.7" to 2.0" range. Instability indices also increase a bit but not to substantially. Still mainly looking for this to be mainly a heavy rain event. The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the tropical wave South and east across the state. The deep layer moisture and the closed low center associated with the tropical wave move off the GA/SC coast Late Friday morning/afternoon. This allows for a drier airmass to move into the region for the weekend. 01 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Most clouds SCT/BKN035-050 with some MVFR layers this morning. Showers increasing across the northern taf sites after 12z with MVFR ceilings possible during the day as a frontal boundary pushes into north GA. Could be an isolated thunderstorm at any time...but best chances will be this afternoon and evening. For now tempo thunder seems overdone but will continue to monitor. Showers could linger after 00z across the taf sites and overnight with MVFR ceilings and some possible IFR toward the end of the period. Winds west to southwest 6 to 9 kts today becoming northwest after 18z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium to low on MVFR ceilings and timing of thunder. Medium to high on all else. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 69 85 69 / 50 40 30 20 Atlanta 84 69 85 70 / 50 30 40 20 Blairsville 80 62 80 64 / 40 30 20 20 Cartersville 83 65 84 69 / 40 20 30 20 Columbus 89 71 89 71 / 40 30 40 20 Gainesville 83 68 82 69 / 40 40 30 20 Macon 91 70 90 70 / 40 30 40 20 Rome 84 64 86 69 / 50 20 30 20 Peachtree City 86 68 87 69 / 50 30 40 20 Vidalia 92 72 92 72 / 20 20 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...41