710 FXUS64 KSJT 061129 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin today, with weak northerly flow aloft over our area. With daytime heating and residual moisture, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and early evening across the southern half of our area. While the possibility for localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out with a couple of storms, the primary hazards look to be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rain. The convection is expected to dissipate later in the evening, with skies clearing overnight. Highs today are expected to be in the 90-95 degree range, with overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An upper-level ridge will be the dominant feature for the upcoming week as it will remain in place across the western US and start to nose into west Texas over the next few days. This will result in sunny skies and warmer than normal temperatures across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s through midweek, possibly approaching triple digits this weekend. A weak cold front looks to move into the Big Country on Wednesday, but this should do nothing more than to provide slightly cooler nights and lower humidity values from Thursday into this weekend. Long-range models indicate the ridge will flatten somewhat and eventually wobble over to the southeast US by the start of next week, allowing warm and dry conditions to continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Early this morning, patchy low clouds (with MVFR ceilings) have developed over the area from just east of the Big Country south across Brown County to near Llano. Not expecting this low cloud cover to affect KABI or KBBD, but will monitor the development and amend the respective TAFs if needed. Looking ahead to this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the mid-to-late afternoon across the southern half of our area. Carrying VCTS at our southern terminals, where coverage should be a little higher. The convection is expected to dissipate later in the evening. Light winds will continue this morning through midday. Outside of convective activity, wind speeds this afternoon through tonight will remain less than 10 knots. Light east to southeast winds this evening will veer to the south overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 69 96 69 / 10 0 5 0 San Angelo 94 69 94 67 / 20 5 10 0 Junction 95 69 96 67 / 30 20 10 5 Brownwood 94 68 96 67 / 10 0 5 0 Sweetwater 92 69 95 69 / 10 0 5 0 Ozona 93 70 94 67 / 20 10 10 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...19