650 FXUS61 KBUF 061116 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 716 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today causing a few more showers. Despite the rain chances today, there will be plenty of rain free periods this Labor Day holiday. A brief period of dry weather Tuesday before the next chances for showers and a few thunderstorms enter the forecast Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current radar imagery is depicting one main area of showers and convection this morning extending south across western Lake Ontario into western New York. These showers and storms are associated with a surface cold front lying within the same vicinity of the showers. The line of activity will continue to cross Western New York through the mid-morning. The front is then progged to continue to cross the area from west to east through the remainder of the day today, and therefore expect increasing shower potential across the eastern half of the area from mid-morning through afternoon. The greatest potential for shower activity today continues to remain across the North Country as a combination of timing of the frontal passage this afternoon and synoptic forcing will be conducive to produce more organized showers and a few thunderstorms. Outside of the chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with the front, some scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue throughout the day today in the wake of the frontal passage due to an upper level trough remaining overhead of the region. Shower chances will continue for areas southeast of both lakes tonight due to cool west-northwesterly winds flow across the water surface. These chances will gradually peter out as surface high pressure pushes invades the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will drift across the region Tuesday supporting dry weather. South-southwest flow will pickup in the afternoon ahead of the next system, with associated warm advection and downslope flow helping temperatures reach to around 80 on the lake plains of Western New York. Cooler air aloft will linger for the North Country, with highs ranging from the mid 70s at lower elevations to upper 60s higher terrain. A sharp mid level trough and closed low will then advance from near Lake Superior Tuesday night to near James Bay Wednesday evening, with a vertically stacked surface low taking a similar track. A surface cold front will surge east across the eastern Great Lakes late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong convergence along the front coupled with increasing large scale ascent ahead of the trough will produce a band of showers and possibly a few gusty thunderstorms, entering Western NY late Tuesday night and then advancing east across the rest of the area through the first half of Wednesday. A dry slot behind the cold front will bring a return to mainly dry weather from west to east later Wednesday. It will become quite breezy Tuesday night and Wednesday as the cold front crosses the area, with gusts of 25-30 knots expected northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The longwave pattern across North America will still be quite amplified at midweek, but will become much more zonal next weekend. A strong ridge over the 4 corners at midweek will flatten and spread east, dominating much of the southern 2/3 of the nation by next weekend, with zonal westerlies setting up along the US/Canadian border. Looking at the details, a mid level trough and associated cool air aloft will advance slowly east across the Great Lakes and New England Wednesday night through Friday. A series of shortwaves moving through the longwave trough will bring a chance of a few showers at times. Cool air aloft may also support lake effect rain showers east and southeast of the lakes. The trough will move east of the area Friday night and Saturday, allowing for a return to dry weather. Temperatures will run a little below normal through mid to late week, with highs generally in the lower 70s for lower elevations and mid to upper 60s for higher terrain. Lows will generally be in the 50s, with some 40s possible in the cooler Southern Tier Valleys and North Country if skies clear enough at night. A warming trend will start next weekend as the pattern becomes more zonal and warm advection begins. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... One main area of showers and embedded thunderstorms lies across western Lake Ontario and extends southward across western New York this morning. Despite these showers, VFR flight conditions prevail across all TAF sites. This line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to progress east towards the area east of Lake Ontario, where it will cause brief periods of MVFR conditions through the afternoon. Tonight, showers will push east out of the forecast area and allow for VFR conditions to return as surface high pressure enters the western portions of the forecast area. Outlook... Tuesday. VFR. Wednesday...Areas of MVFR in showers. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... Colder air aloft arrived overnight resulting in a chance of waterspouts across Lake Erie early this morning through mid morning, and all day on Lake Ontario. Best chances for waterspouts will be with the showers and storms along a cold front as it crosses the region. Additionally, winds will increase through this morning on Lake Erie, and during the day today on Lake Ontario as the previously mentioned cold front crosses the lakes. The increase in winds and waves has resulted in small craft advisories for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River. The higher waves today into this evening have also resulted in the issuance of Beach Hazard Statements for most of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline zones as outlined below. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003-006- 007. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ004-005. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ001-002. Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/TMA LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/JLA/SW