874 
FXUS63 KDDC 061015
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

An upper level ridge/trough pattern continues over the U.S. today
with the main belt of upper level flow extending from the Pacific
Northwest eastward along the U.S./Canadian border before turning
southeast through the Ohio Valley. The ridge was building eastward
over the central High Plains today and this will result in warmer
temperatures across western Kansas today. Low level warm advections
combined with a slight southwesterly component to the winds today
should result in high temperatures well up into the mid 90s. These
mild temperatures will continue into tonight.

An upper level shortwave trough moving into the Washington/British
Columbia region this morning will track east and then southeast in
the upper flow tonight into Tuesday. An associated cold front will
push south across western and central Kansas during the day. Cold
air advection behind the front will result in nearly steady or even
slowly falling temperatures during the day. Northeast winds will 
be gusting to 35-40 mph for a period of time behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The extended period will see a continuation of dry weather along
with a return to warmer temperatures late in the week. The upper
ridge will continue over the central and southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains through the end of the week. This will promote
downslope conditions will temperatures back up into the 90s.

Tonight's GFS model has backed off on the idea of a strong upper 
wave moving toward the region this weekend and looks more like the
ECMWF as well as the GFS. The warmer temperatures should hold at
least through the upcoming weekend. Precipitation chances could
increase again next week as the central High Plains are more on the
backside of the subtropical ridge and could see better instances of
tropical monsoonal moisture spreading up into the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

VFR/SKC conditions will prevail through this period. South to
southwest winds will increase by mid/late morning with gusts to
around 20-25 knots, especially at LBL/DDC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  65  89  55 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  95  62  89  54 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  97  62  92  55 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  95  63  92  55 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  95  65  86  55 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  93  67  92  59 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard