333 
FXUS63 KABR 060841
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
341 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Today looks to be one of the warmest Labor Days we've seen in quite 
a few years. Ahead of a mid-level digging trof, a very warm to hot 
airmass will advect east into the Northern Plains. H850 temps of 
greater than +20C are expected over most of the forecast area. And, 
as boundary layer winds turn more southwesterly this afternoon, the 
temp should sky rocket over most of the area. The exception could be 
over the Coteau where a plume of LLM will advect into the region. 
That plume of 60F+ dewpoints leads to moderate instability per 
MLCAPEs late this afternoon. As s/w energy passes by during the 
evening, a slight chance of convection will exist over the far 
eastern CWA. A sfc front associated with the s/w aloft will pass 
over the CWA this evening, with gusty winds expected behind the 
front as a strong pressure bubble builds southeast over the area. 
For now expect winds to mostly remain under advisory criteria, but 
it could be close. Low level lapse rates remain steep on Tuesday and 
thus the wind will remain gusty, especially in the afternoon, but 
the airmass will be considerably cooler. Will maintain Red Flag 
Warning for this afternoon/evening. Minimum relative humidity should 
still drop below 20 percent over west river areas, but wind remains 
a concern. The strongest winds don't materialize until toward 
evening. However, that still leaves a couple hours where RH and wind 
criteria should be met this evening.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Predominantly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures are 
anticipated through the period. Tuesday evening begins with breezy 
conditions, out of the northwest, as a ~996mb sfc low tracks east 
across the northern Great Lakes. However, sfc high pressure's 
influence will increase on Wednesday, leading to lesser winds across 
the area (still 20 to 30 mph gusts potentially across the Prairie 
Coteau). Thereafter, northwest flow aloft continues as an upper-
level high remains across the southwestern US. Shortwave energy will 
track across the Northern Plains on Thursday, leading to a southerly 
return flow at the surface. A more significant upper-low may pass 
through south central Canada Friday into Saturday, and while our 
area would most likely remain dry, breezy conditions would be 
possible. Thereafter, zonal flow may develop as the upper ridge 
flattens. If so, higher quality opportunities for precipitation may 
follow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF valid 
period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for 
     SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK