868 FXUS63 KGLD 060829 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 229 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through 12Z Thursday) Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The main forecast concerns for the near-term are hot and dry conditions and the possibility of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. High pressure dominates over the southwestern CONUS through the forecast period with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. An upper trough embedded in the northwest flow will move across the area. Brought high temperatures up a couple of degrees as models have been trending slightly upward the last couple of runs. Expect highs to be in the 90s. Lows will range from the mid-50s in Eastern Colorado to the low 60s. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon along and west of a line extending from McCook to Colby to Tribune. Relative humidity is expected to be in the mid-teens in these areas with wind gusts being a limiting factor, reaching around 15kts. There is a narrow corridor where near critical fire weather conditions will be present this afternoon. This area includes Wallace County and locations primarily west of Highway 83 that fall along and north of I-70. Relative humidity values in this area will fall into the low to mid-teens during the afternoon. A cold front slips south into the Tri-State area Tuesday, bringing temperatures down slightly. Expected highs will be in the 80s. Winds become northerly as the front passes through, increasing to around 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Minimum RH values will be in the 20s in the afternoon and are not expected to coincide with the strongest winds, so have made no mention of fire weather concerns. Despite the higher RH values, drying conditions on Monday and gusty winds as the front moves through will help to dry out fuels and could potentially aide in the spread of any fires that pop up. Will continue to monitor conditions over the next several model runs. Little change to the "hot and dry" forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures will be up a few degrees from Tuesday, ranging mainly in the mid to upper 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021 The long term period from Tuesday through Sunday remains dry with the main concern being the potential for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours. The large area of high pressure aloft migrates from the Intermountain region on Tuesday across the 4-corners region on Wednesday and into the southern Rockies and southern High Plains on Thursday and Friday before it flattens and diminishes over the weekend as a series of upper short wave troughs move through the westerly flow along the U.S./Canadian border region. A trough/cold front at the surface moves east of the area early Tuesday with a slightly cooler airmass moving into the region that brings high temperatures back into the 80s and closer to normal for this time of year on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the back side of the surface trough/front, north/northeast winds may end up being a little stronger during the day on Tuesday than they have been in days prior given the increase in the pressure gradient around the surface trough. Fire Weather conditions may end up being elevated on Tuesday with an increase in the wind speeds, but with cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, expect RH values to be above critical thresholds. However, with a transition to mostly south/southwest winds and temperatures back up in the middle to upper 90s on Thursday and Friday, expect the western sections of the forecast area along and west of the eastern Colorado border to see RH values down near or below the 15% critical threshold. Wind speeds may not be as high those days, so elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected rather than critical conditions. Another trough/front moves through the area on Saturday, bringing temperatures down a few degrees and the RH values up slightly for Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will still be dry, warm, and a little breezy during the afternoon, but fire weather conditions are not expected to reach critical values at this time on either of those days. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sun Sep 5 2021 For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will largely remain out of the south to southwest through the period at 10kts or less. For KMCK, VFR conditions are likely through the period. However, visibility has been dropping slowly the last few hours and fog/mist may develop early in the period. MVFR conditions may be possible should the fog or mist fully develop, but winds shifting to out of the southwest may limit development. Winds will start out light and variable before becoming southwesterly later in the night. The afternoon hours will see winds shift to out of the south at 10kts or less. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...KAK