316 FXUS63 KJKL 060818 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 418 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2021 Latest analysis shows a surface cold front moving southeast away from the area. High pressure is building in from the west and is expected to settle over the area by tonight. At the upper levels, a trough is swinging through the northeast and a ridge continues to build across the western US. Precip ended with the frontal passage late last night but there is residual low level moisture across the area this morning which is resulting in areas of fog and low stratus. The fog should burn off by around 14Z with gradual improvement in ceilings beyond that. Beyond that, looking at plenty of sunshine today with comfortable temps and humidity. Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 70s to around 80. Mostly clear skies tonight and perhaps a bit chilly to some with overnight lows in the middle 50s, with some lower 50s in some of the sheltered valleys. Some patchy river valley fog is possible towards morning. High pressure shifts east on Tuesday, bringing a light southerly flow to eastern KY. This will increase the humidity a bit but it will be another dry and mostly sunny day with afternoon temps in the low to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 418 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2021 To start the extended, an upper level trough initially up near the Great Lakes will dig down through the region through the day. This trough supports a similarly placed low at the surface with a front extending down through the Great lakes and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As the upper level trough pivots eastward, it sends the surface low on a similar trajectory, dragging the cold front through the area Wednesday. The main question with this front has centered around how much moisture it was going to have available. Recent runs have come in with more precip. However, the mid-levels still look fairly dry when looking at forecast soundings and time heights, and ensemble means are less than operational PoPs. So, did limit PoPs slightly, but generally still stayed close to the NBM solution given the amount of uncertainty and inconsistencies. Once this front passes, dry weather with mainly clear skies becomes the norm as high pressure makes its way east over the region. Temperatures behind the front take a dip as flow becomes more northwesterly and brings in cooler air. Uncertainty greatly increases as we get more into the weekend and the new workweek. Generally though, the high continues to shift east, and temperatures begin to rise again as we get better return flow. Monday, a few models do try to bring in a little precip as a front approaches the Ohio Valley, but given the distance out in the forecast and the large amount of uncertainty and disagreement, stayed with the NBM's dry forecast. Highs stay roughly in the upper 70s to low 80s through most of the period, with Thursday and Friday being the coolest days. Temperatures warm again late in the period into the mid 80s by Monday. Lows generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s, with the exception of Thursday and Friday night getting into the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2021 Poor flying conditions to start the 06Z TAF period with low stratus and fog resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions. Expect visbys to improve by 14Z as fog dissipates with ceilings improving gradually after that. By late morning all locations should return to VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds are calm this morning, becoming northerly 5 kts or less during the day and then light and variable this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...CMF