757 FXUS62 KKEY 060805 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 405 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .DISCUSSION... Currently - A surface through lower tropospheric ridge extends across the Florida Strait. This is resulting in light and variable breezes across the forecast area. Recent satellite imagery suggests that the island chain is right on southern edge of a broad swath of near 2 inches of PWAT while across much of the Florida Straits a PWAT of around 1.5 inches is indicated. This evenings sounding more or less reinforces this with a PWAT of 1.69 inches. In addition, there was little to no inhibition and sufficient cape. With all that said, there has been very little convective activity across the area thus far tonight. The best that can be said about flow aloft is it is generally nebulous with weak troughing in the Gulf of Mexico and east northeast of the Bahamas. Forecast - Over the next couple of days, the weak ridge across our area will expand and connect with a high moving eastward through the eastern United States as a mid latitude trough lifts out. The light and variable flow that tends westerly, will gradually tend more easterly through this period. The previously mentioned swath of increased moisture should lift northward. However, the drier swath is fairly narrow and moisture is expected to increase today as more moisture rich lower levels move in from Cuba. Given the tendency over the past couple of days that had similar environmental factors as forecast today, have nudged pops up to 30 percent. This is above all guidance. Like the past two days, the primary convective trigger will be mainland convection affecting the Upper Keys and reverse cloud line build up. Around mid week another mid latitude trough will swing through the eastern states and the ridge will again narrow across our area. Winds will be light out of the southeast and likely variable for some areas due to mainland diurnal processes. Rain chances will remain near normal, perhaps dipping a bit on Thursday and some drier lower level air transits the area. The surface ridge will finally manage to lift northward across northern Florida and the gulf states this weekend. Correspondingly, winds will become gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. While mesoscale factors like island cloud lines and mainland outflows will be less of an issue, maritime boundaries in a seasonably moist and unstable environment should keep pops near a normal low chance. && .MARINE... A ridge across the Florida Keys will keep winds light and variable today. The ridge will nudge northward into Florida through early week and winds will transition to a more prevailing east to southeasterly flow. However, the ridge is expected to work its way back southeastward after mid week and while southeasterly flow will prevail over the Straits, more variability will return to other waters. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through the day. Light and variable winds along with an increase in moisture should support an island cumulus cloud line late this afternoon. VCSH has been introduced beginning near 15z for both terminals until the early evening. Sub-MVFR and IFR conditions are possible in association with the cloud line. && .CLIMATE... In 1622, a Hurricane in or near the Florida Keys sunk two or three Spanish ships between Key West and the Dry Tortugas, one of which was the "Atocha". && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 80 90 81 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 91 81 91 81 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....Williams Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest