444 
FXUS64 KMRX 060534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered showers through early Monday morning. Rainfall 
amounts will generally be light.

2) Return of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures for Labor
Day.

Discussion:

A frontal boundary will move across the region overnight. A weak
upper jet will produce some divergence aloft from the right
entrance region so a band of rain showers is anticipated. However,
instability is lacking especially areas along and north of
interstate 40. MLCAPES are near 500 near the GA/AL stateline so
can not rule out a rumble of thunder there. 

Due to limited upper support and instability, rainfall amounts
will be less than one-quarter over southwest Virginia and northern
half of Tennessee with up to one-half inch possible over southeast
Tennessee/southwest North Carolina. 

Cloud cover may break enough across the northern Plateau for more
widespread fog development, otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions
overnight.

Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperature forecast to
reflect current conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

There will be a few showers around early, and conditions will
fluctuate but MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will be common 
until after sunrise in fog and low clouds. Conditions will improve
after sunrise as clouds move out and any lingering fog 
dissipates, with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the 
period all sites.

LW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  63  86  68  88 /  10   0  20  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  61  86  67  86 /  10   0  10  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  61  85  65  86 /  10   0  10  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  56  85  63  84 /  10   0   0  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$