223 FXUS64 KMAF 060525 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Temporary MVFR conditions are possible for KHOB this morning. A low cloud deck will form across much of the area and burn off by the afternoon. Winds will remain light and out of the east. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the day across portions of Southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the northern Permian Basin in the wake of a diffuse cold front that is located generally along the I-20 corridor this afternoon. High-resolution model guidance has struggled to capture convective trends today, though the expectation is for storm coverage to increase in the vicinity of the front this afternoon, already evidenced by a developing cumulus field and new convective development over southern Andrews county. Additional development is expected across the higher terrain, with the best focus generally along and west of the Pecos River where easterly to northeasterly upslope flow will aid in development near and behind the aforementioned front. Temperatures this afternoon are noticeably cooler across northern zones, with some spots hanging in the upper 70s and lower 80s due to weak cold advection and precipitation/cloud cover, with warmer temperatures in the 90s focused further south. Overnight tonight, widespread cloud cover will limit cooling somewhat, though continued weak cold advection will yield lows a degree or two cooler tonight than last night for most, in the 60s and lower 70s. Storms that develop through tonight are not expected to be severe, however given high precipitable water values (1.30" per the 12Z MAF sounding, near the 80th percentile for September 5th) and little shear to speak of, locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding or flash flooding remain the primary concerns, especially where cell training occurs and over areas that have already received rainfall the past few days. Heading into Labor Day, the trend will be for precipitation to shift southward toward I-10, with another round of storms possible during the afternoon and evening. Similar to today, the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall and flooding that may result, along with lightning and gusty winds. Highs on Monday will be near or just below normal, topping out in the middle 80s and lower 90s for most, with upper 90s and lower 100s focused generally south of US90 toward the Rio Grande. Lingering showers and storms should taper off fairly quickly into Monday evening as the front progresses south and high pressure begins to build into the region from the west. Lows Monday night look to be similar to those tonight, in the 60s and lower 70s for most. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 Mid level heights will build over the area Tuesday as a large upper ridge grows over the West. While an isolated storm is possible over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Tuesday afternoon, the majority of the region will remain dry. A strong upper trough will move across the Great Lakes midweek with models showing a weak cold front sliding into the area Wednesday. This front looks dry and won't have much affect on temperatures. After a cooler Monday, temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90's Tuesday and stay there through the week. The center of the upper ridge is expected to move overhead Friday into the weekend leading to even hotter temperatures. We could even see some upper 90's to near 100 for portions of the area. As for precipitation, it's not looking good in the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 91 68 94 68 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 66 94 67 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 97 72 96 72 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 93 69 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 65 84 65 / 10 0 10 0 Hobbs 88 65 92 65 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 86 59 86 60 / 20 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 91 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 0 Odessa 91 68 94 69 / 10 10 10 0 Wink 93 70 96 70 / 10 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...89