280 FXUS64 KLCH 060300 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 .UPDATE...The previous forecast remains on target with only a minor update to the precip grids conducted to reflect current trends. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021/ DISCUSSION... For 09/06/2021 00Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... Some scattered convection and associated cloud cover around the region this evening. Expect some of this activity to begin to fizzle out following sunset... But, a diffuse and slow moving frontal boundary will sink towards the area overnight, so will see a reintroduction of VCTS and lowered CIGS accordingly. TEMPO groups may be added later, but high res guidance suggests activity should remain fairly scattered. Additionally, given the weakness of the boundary, winds will remain light and variable through much of the night enhancing the potential for the typical patchy BR/FG development after midnight. Some question of how far south the boundary makes it, but likely will see at least some northerly winds pick up after daybreak tomorrow as it stalls and washes out nearby. With the stalling of the boundary, will also see a continuation of vicinity type activity through the day. Most guidance prevails VFR... Though any increased convective coverage and activity directly over the terminals will result in more deteriorated conditions. 50 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021/ DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM [Today through 12Z Wednesday]... Showers and thunderstorms will be expected to continue developing (primarily for southern areas) for the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. A few storms will be possible for Central LA through the evening. Storms will dissipate after sunset but an approaching frontal boundary from the north will lead to forced uplift and formation of storms in our area during the overnight hours. The HRRR is showing some storms making their way through our area starting around 04Z and progressing towards the coast by 12Z. PWATs 2.00-2.25 inches will be expected heading into Monday. The frontal boundary will be expected to stall over our area Monday into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be enhanced by daytime heating. WPC has our area in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall through the period. A significant amount of moisture present in our area along with the stalling frontal boundary means that there will be persistent chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Areas that get sustained and persistent rainfall could see flooding. 55 LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]... As we start the long term period, our weak frontal boundary is progged to be meandering/washing out in vicinity of the forecast area, while another, more substantial cool front is noted to our northwest, extending from the Mid-South through the ArkLaTex. At the same time, the much talked about area of disturbed weather currently over the wrn Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula is progged to be moving newd across the cntl Gulf as a trof of low pressure. Combo of these features, along with plentiful Gulf moisture in place across the area (forecast soundings indicate PWAT values as high as 2.2 inches, mainly over lower Acadiana) should lead to scattered/numerous showers/storms by Wednesday afternoon, primarily over the sern zones. By Thursday, the reinforcing front should be slipping into the forecast area, squeezing sufficient moisture for further convection to mainly the coastal areas and lower Acadiana. The main impacts of the front for now appear to be a nice lowering of dewpoints across the nrn zones, making for a more pleasant afternoon despite temps into the mid 90s. With the front slipping off the coast by early Friday, dry weather looks on tap for the early portions of the weekend. Wake up temps are progged by guidance to be in the mid/upper 60s (a degree or two below seasonal norms) for a large portion of the forecast area through Saturday. By Sunday, the front washes out and return flow begins moistening the lower levels again...look for widely scattered showers/storms to also return to the region. 25 MARINE... Weak onshore flow and low seas will prevail this evening outside of scattered thunderstorms. Storms will become more widespread Monday through Wednesday as a frontal boundary stalls across the region. Winds will alternate between offshore and onshore through the first half of the week depending on the exact location of the boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 89 68 92 / 70 40 10 30 LCH 76 89 72 90 / 60 60 40 50 LFT 76 89 73 91 / 40 80 40 60 BPT 74 90 71 91 / 60 60 40 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$