343 FXUS62 KILM 060130 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 930 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity and temperatures will rebound to near and above normal thresholds by Monday. Rain chances pick up a little bit mid to late week due to several cold front passages. Hurricane Larry will remain at sea, but will bring increasing surf and dangerous rip currents to the beaches, including inlet turbulence during outgoing tides later this week. && .UPDATE... No changes of note, satellite data shows the overnight period will be prime for stargazing, with ground-mist rearing its head in a few spots between 430am and 730am. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Relatively quiet weather continues for the start of the week with low level humidity slowly increasing with high pressure offshore. Low temps tonight in the mid 60s away from the coast, with patchy fog possible across inland NE SC in the early morning hours. Some guidance hinting at a weak feature moving across coastal SC early tomorrow morning leading to a light shower or two. A weak cold front approaches the area early Monday, reaching inland areas by the afternoon. With bulk of upper level support well to the north and moisture along the front limited and confined to lowest 15- 18 kft, not expecting anything more than spotty light showers with the front. Weak lapse rates and dry air aloft will limit thunder potential. Front reaches the coast Monday evening before lingering near the coast overnight as a weak boundary. Current forecast is high around 90 Monday, though if front moves in quicker with additional cloud coverage could see slightly lower temps inland. Low temps Monday night around 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... In general, troffiness aloft to start out this period. Models in agreement in amplifying this upper trof by the end of this period...with the trof axis remaining west of the ILM CWA per model consensus. The stalled sfc front, lying nearly ENE-WSW across from the FA will a source of convergence for convection to occur Tue into Tue evening prior to the front lifting northward. The next front, approaches from the NW Wed, reaching the Appalachians Wed night. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is drawn north-northeastward across the FA late Wed thru Wed night. The best chance for convection is poised to occur Wed aftn thru night. However, this could be an instance where convection moving across NE Gulf of Mexico across FL-GA and into the Atlantic, steals a good chunk of the energy for our tstorm threat, as embedded mid-level s/w trof(s) rotate around the base of this amplifying upper trof. Nevertheless, will continue with the hiest POPs for this period in the Wed-Wed night time frame. It's this amplifying upper trof that will swerve Hurricane Larry away from the East Coast. Temps this period to run nearly a category, up to 5 degrees F, above normal for both day-time highs and night-time lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The FA will be under the amplified upper trof at the start of this period, with the trof axis just west of the ILM CWA. The sfc front will either be across or just off the Carolina Coast at the start of this period. POPs will be at their highest, chance category, during Thu. The trof axis will swing to the FA by Fri, and stalling either overhead or just off the Carolina Coasts. This drier continental air under W to NW flow aloft, will help drive the sfc cold front further East and South of the FA in time for the next weekend. De-amplification of this upper trof will occur by this next weekend but continue with generally westerly flow aloft. As a result, looking at a dry trend later Fri thru the upcoming weekend. Temps Thu will run slightly above the norm...however for Fri thru Sun, looking at day-time highs near normal and night-time lows at or slightly below the norm. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions through the period. Perhaps a few more high clouds tomorrow at this time but that seems to be the extent of it. Once again isolated MVFR BR is possible but guidance is unchanged since this morning so not worth a mention. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tue though Thu could bring brief flight category restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Monday Night... Benign marine conditions continue through Monday night. Predominantly 10-15 kt winds out of the west-southwest tonight through Monday weakening Monday night to under 10 kts with varied directions as a weak boundary stalls near the coastline. Seas linger in the 2 foot range through Monday night as a mix of wind chop and 1 ft 10 sec ESE swell. Forerunner long period swells from Hurricane Larry are expected to reach the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday through Friday... The highlight of this period will be the increasing Hurricane Larry swells affecting the local waters. Larry fore-runners, 1 to 2 ft at 16+ second periods, will already be traversing the local waters at the start of this period. Hurricane Larry at this point is not forecast to cross the 65 degree W longitude line, and will be at it's closest approach to NC Thu as it turns N then NNE. The timing of the peak swell will traverse the local waters from late Thu into early Sat...with 4 to 6 ft running at 14+ second periods. In general, the swell direction will run E-ESE. SCA will be advertised in the HWO from these seas. Stalled sfc front at the start of Tue will lift north late Tue night and Wed. Looking at weak onshore flow Tue into Wed that will become SW ahead of this next approaching cold front. This front will slowly push to and off the Carolina coasts, and finally offshore Thu night into Fri. Best chance for convection will occur ahead of this 2nd cold front. Winds will become N-NE after this CFP and could be under-done by model guidance. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MJC NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SHK MARINE...DCH/VAO