873 FXUS64 KMRX 060102 AAA AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 902 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: 1) Scattered showers through early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be light. 2) Return of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures for Labor Day. Discussion: A frontal boundary will move across the region overnight. A weak upper jet will produce some divergence aloft from the right entrance region so a band of rain showers is anticipated. However, instability is lacking especially areas along and north of interstate 40. MLCAPES are near 500 near the GA/AL stateline so can not rule out a rumble of thunder there. Due to limited upper support and instability, rainfall amounts will be less than one-quarter over southwest Virginia and northern half of Tennessee with up to one-half inch possible over southeast Tennessee/southwest North Carolina. Cloud cover may break enough across the northern Plateau for more widespread fog development, otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperature forecast to reflect current conditions. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Main concerns are scattered showers along a frontal boundary that will move across the TAF sites through early Monday morning. Periods of generally light to moderate are expected. This frontal boundary and associated moisture convergence will produce lower ceilings and fog to MVFR to possibly IFR conditions overnight through around 12Z Monday. Drier air will advect into east Tennessee Monday morning with flight conditions improving to VFR by mid-morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 83 63 86 68 / 60 10 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 61 86 67 / 60 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 81 61 85 65 / 60 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 81 56 85 63 / 50 10 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$