959 
FXUS65 KPIH 031953
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
153 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night.
Dry and relatively quiet conditions are expected through this 
weekend, with main concerns focused around smoke and fire weather 
conditions. A lingering trough to our southeast has since moved 
east out of the area, and has brought behind it predominant dry 
northwest flow into the region. What this means for smoke, is that
conditions will generally improve for those outside the Central 
Mountains. The Boundary Fire which is burning about 25 miles 
northwest of Stanley, will be contributing to significant smoke 
inundation in the Central Mountains through the period supported 
by dry northwest flow. For Saturday, an upper level trough moves 
through Northern Idaho and Montana and supports breezy conditions 
both Saturday and especially Sunday. Flow aloft after that will 
generally transition to a west/southwest direction and bring more 
smoke back to the entire forecast area come late Sunday and into 
the start of next week. Temperatures will warm throughout the 
weekend as a result of a ridge forming over the area into next 
week, with above average temperatures expected for the first full
week of September. 
CM/DMH

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.  
Hot and dry conditions will dominate the brunt of the long term 
period Monday through Thursday.   Blend of models begins to bring in 
some precipitation Thursday night and Friday.  Low confidence in how 
quickly ridge will break down but trend is for cooler temperatures 
by Friday but still likely very near normal.  Will likely get 
breezier Thursday and Friday as well but not overly strong winds 
either. 
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Will be VFR with clear skies most TAF sites.  Most likely place for 
smoke inhibited visibility will be SUN.  For now kept every TAF 
site VFR through Saturday morning.  
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop and continue through 
most of next week.  Expect widespread relative humidity minimums to 
be below 10 percent through Tuesday and could see at least near red 
flag conditions Sunday afternoon in zones 475 and 476 with some wind 
gusts over 25 mph expected.  Right now expecting very marginal event 
at best and will issue no highlights.  Will see the next chance of 
showers or thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday.  Temperatures 
may cool closer to seasonal normal by next Friday.  
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$